Stephen Curry and the Warriors are in much better form than Stephon Castle and the Spurs. While our NBA betting picks believe both PGs will shine, the best bet of the night is for the Dubs to coast to victory.
Rob Paul • Betting Analyst
Mar 30, 2025 • 13:34 ET • 4 min read
In a season that couldn’t get much worse for the San Antonio Spurs as they try to end a three-game losing steak, they welcome the Golden State Warriors to town as Steph Curry & Co. look to continue climbing the Western Conference standings.
With Curry back in the mix after dealing with a pelvic injury, Golden State is poised to continue adding wins to its record after taking home a W in 15 of its last 19 games. My Warriors vs. Spurs predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, March 30 expect Golden State to handle business against a struggling Spurs squad.
Warriors vs Spurs prediction
My best bet: Warriors -12 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
It’s basically been a worst-case scenario season for a San Antonio Spurs team that had high hopes heading into Victor Wembanyama’s sophomore season. They lost Gregg Popovich early after he suffered a stroke before Wemby was ruled out for the season due to blood clots shortly after the team traded for All-Star De’Aaron Fox. Fox then tore a tendon in his hand and was also ruled out for the season.
Despite everything the team is dealing with, the Spurs have been covering the spread a little more frequently than expected, which is why this is the lowest spread the team has had in its last three games.
But with Stephen Curry looking good to go, the Golden State Warriors should cruise past a Spurs team that’s been relying on a rookie to keep its offense afloat. Even with Stephon Castle favored in the NBA Rookie of the Year odds, San Antonio is middle of the pack offensively at 15th in PPG (114.3) and offensive rating (114.9).
Putting up points against Golden State won’t come easy with the Warriors sitting eighth in points allowed per game (110.7) and seventh in defensive rating (111.9). Led by NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds favorite Draymond Green, the Warriors are allowing the ninth-fewest 3-pointers per game (13.1), the sixth fewest 2-pointers (27.4), and sit fifth in steals per game (9.1).
With their turnover-forcing defense, Golden State should have San Antonio looking discombobulated. And the Spurs’ defense just doesn’t have the juice to stop Curry and Jimmy Butler.
San Antonio is 25th in defensive rating and has been hammered in March. The Spurs are allowing 123.1 PPG this month with opponents shooting 50.8% from the floor and 38.4% from behind the arc.
An offense missing it’s two most important pieces and needing a rookie to carry the load just won’t cut it against a Warriors team trying to play itself into a playoff spot.
Warriors vs Spurs same-game parlay
Warriors -12Stephen Curry Over 4.5 made 3-pointers
Stephon Castle Over 19.5 points
Even at 37 years old, Curry leads the NBA in made 3-pointers per game (4.4) while shooting 39.2% from deep. In his first game back from a pelvic injury on Friday, he didn’t hesitate to pull from deep either.
Curry went 5-for-16 from three, proving he won’t back off from shooting, even when he’s not at his best. But he should find his rhythm against a Spurs defense that’s allowing the ninth-most 3-pointers per game (14.0) and the sixth-most to point guards (3.42).
While I don’t expect Castle to do enough to keep the Spurs in this game, the rookie has been hot in March, something UConn fans won’t be surprised by. The former Husky has dropped 22 points in back-to-back games and has gone Over 19.5 in 10 of his last 17.
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Warriors vs Spurs odds
Warriors vs Spurs live odds
Warriors vs Spurs opening odds
- Spread: Golden State -12 | San Antonio +12
- Moneyline: Golden State -620 | San Antonio +460
- Over/Under: Over 232 | Under 232
Odds courtesy of bet365
Warriors vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis
- Golden State opened as an 11.5 to 12-point favorite with the line seeing almost no movement with Curry expected to be on the court.
- The Warriors have been 50/50 when it comes to covering with a 35-35-3 record ATS while the Spurs are just 34-39.
- The Over/Under has seen plenty of movement since opening as low as 230.5 and climbing to as high as 233.5 before dropping down to between 230.5 and 231.
- Golden State is at the bottom of the league when it comes to hitting the Over at 36-37, but San Antonio is 41-32.
Warriors vs Spurs trend
The Spurs have only hit the Under in 27 of their last 68 games (-17.00 Units / -23% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Spurs.
How to watch Warriors vs Spurs
Location Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX Date Sunday, 3-30-2025 Tip-off 7:00 p.m. ET TV NBCSBA, FanDuel Sports Network-SW
Warriors vs Spurs latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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