A volatile weather system is poised to unleash severe thunderstorms across the central United States on Sunday, with the potential for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds.
Roughly 170 million people from Illinois to eastern Texas and beyond could be affected over the next two days, as unseasonably warm air collides with a powerful cold front.
March has already delivered an extraordinary number of tornado reports, surpassing the number from the same time last year. Some of the same regions struck by deadly storms earlier this month could once again find themselves in harm’s way.
Weekend temperatures from the Plains to the East Coast have felt more like late May or early June, but a cold front coming in Sunday will bring an abrupt end to the unseasonable warmth. As that cooler air collides with the warm, moisture-laden air ahead of it, explosive thunderstorms are expected to erupt.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed more than 25 million people under a level 3 of 5 risk for severe weather on Sunday, including major cities such as Nashville, Indianapolis and St. Louis. Another 40 million people outside that are under a level 2 of 5 risk, encompassing areas that include Dallas, Chicago and Cleveland.
The storms were already spitting out massive hail near Oklahoma City late Saturday. Photos sent to CNN affiliate KOCO show hailstones ranging from about the size of a quarter to a golf ball, many of them spiked.
The storms are expected to find a new gear as they sweep east late Sunday afternoon, stretching from Illinois to eastern Texas, and will intensify further as they move eastward through the evening and overnight hours.
Forecasters warn Sunday’s storms could bring a range of severe weather, including strong and long-lived tornadoes rated EF2 or higher, hail larger than golf balls and wind gusts strong enough to cause widespread damage.
Many of the most intense thunderstorms are expected to strike after nightfall, heightening concerns. Tornadoes that occur at night are nearly twice as likely to be fatal as those during daylight hours, a 2022 study found.
Some storms are expected to bring heavy rainfall, raising the risk of flash flooding across regions from the South to the Midwest.
The severe weather threat will spill into Monday as powerful thunderstorms continue to sweep eastward from the Appalachians to Louisiana and Mississippi during the morning hours. While some storms may briefly weaken with the morning light, they are expected to regain strength by the afternoon.
By Monday evening, the severe weather threat will span nearly the entire East Coast, placing nearly 100 million people at risk. Cities from New Orleans to Boston fall within the affected zone, though the specific threats will vary.
The Northeast’s primary threat will be damaging wind gusts. A huge swath of the South, from the mid-Atlantic to the Gulf Coast, will face the full spectrum of severe weather hazards, including hail, tornadoes and strong winds.
The storms are expected to linger overnight from the mid-Atlantic to the Northeast before moving into the Atlantic Ocean by Tuesday morning.
This year has already seen an extraordinary number of tornadoes, with approximately 300 tornado reports logged since January, nearly double the 164 reported by this time last year. Since 2010, only three years — 2023, 2017 and 2013 —have recorded more tornadoes in the first three months of the year.
Last year tornado activity surged in late spring and persisted through December, resulting in nearly 2,000 tornado reports. It was the second-most tornado reports in a single year on record, surpassed only by 2017.
This spring’s procession of severe storm systems looks likely to continue. With this week’s threat looming, forecasters are already monitoring a large area from Texas to the Midwest for another potential round of thunderstorms on Wednesday.
Residents across all affected regions are urged to stay informed and have multiple ways to receive weather alerts, especially in areas at risk for nighttime storms.
