Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer address reporters in Geneva. Photo: Valentin Flauraud/AFP via Getty Images

The U.S. and China appear to have struck some sort of trade deal, with both sides promising details on Monday.

Why it matters: The trade war between the two largest economies brought the world to the brink of recession, and threatened to scramble the global economic order.

• Supply chain experts and retailers have said the U.S. was a few weeks away from empty shelves and soaring prices, on par with the COVID pandemic, as trade all but stopped.

Catch up quick: After two days of talks in Geneva, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters on Sunday that there was “substantial progress,” while U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer noted that “perhaps the differences were not so large as maybe thought.”

• The White House circulated their comments in an email headlined “U.S. Announces China Trade Deal in Geneva.”

The other side: Chinese officials reportedly said Sunday that a coming joint statement would be “good news for the world.”

• They also indicated the sides agreed on a mechanism for further talks.

Catch up quick: A series of tit-for-tat trade retaliations in recent months left the U.S. and China with what Bessent has called an effective “trade embargo,” as tariffs rose to the point of choking off business between the countries.

• The Federal Reserve, in a new research paper Friday, indicated tariffs on China had already started pushing consumer prices higher — and that was before the current 145% levies went into effect.
• Cargo traffic into the Port of Los Angeles, the largest U.S. container port, is plunging, while retailers have made clear in recent days that price hikes are inevitable as tariffs squeeze their margins.

Yes, but: After weeks of increasingly bitter rhetoric, the statements from both sides issued Sunday were positive and optimistic.

What to watch: Neither country will say yet when the Monday statement will be released, but investors cheered what little they knew.

• Stocks opened stronger Sunday night on the news, with S&P 500 futures up 1.3%.
• The U.S. Dollar Index, under pressure of late over concerns about the health of the economy, rose about 0.3%. Bond yields were steady, with the U.S. 10-year hovering around 4.38%.

Editor’s note: This article has been updated to reflect stock market developments.