March Madness continues tonight with four Sweet 16 matchups to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of NCAA Tournament games using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Kentucky (24-11) is the 3-seed and just upset Illinois 84-75 in the second round, winning outright as 2.5-point neutral site dogs. Meanwhile, Tennessee (29-7) is the 2-seed and just held off UCLA 67-58 in the second round, covering as 5.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 4.5-point neutral site favorite. The public is largely split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, a closer look at the line history shows that Tennessee has remained stagnant at -4.5 and even dipped to -4 at times throughout the week. The Volunteers have never risen up to -5.
Now, several shops are juicing up Kentucky on game day (+4.5 at -115). Reading between the lines, this signals liability on the side of Kentucky plus the points.
At DraftKings, Kentucky is receiving 48% of spread bets and 49% of spread dollars, an ever-so-slight “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in their favor.
Short dogs getting 5-points or less, like the Wildcats here, are 12-7 ATS (63%) this March Madness.
Kentucky has the better offensive efficiency (10th vs 17th), effective field goal percentage (22nd vs 82nd) and three-point shooting (37% vs 35%). The Wildcats also take better care of the ball (36th in turnovers vs 111th) and do a better job of limiting offensive rebounds to their opponents (27th vs 205th).
Kentucky has additional value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. The Wildcats went 2-0 against the Volunteers during the regular season, winning 78-73 and 75-64.
Wiseguys also seem to be expecting a lower scoring game, as the total has dipped from 146.5 to 144.5. This downward movement is especially notable because the public is pounding the over (82% of bets at DraftKings) yet the total fall, signaling sharp reverse line movement on the under.
Michigan (27-9) is the 5-seed and just upset Texas A&M 91-79 in the second round, winning outright as 2.5-point neutral site dogs. On the other hand, Auburn (30-5) is the 1-seed and just dismissed Creighton 82-70 in the second round, covering as 8.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Auburn listed as a 7.5-point neutral site favorite. The public thinks this line is a bit high and 58% of spread bets at DraftKings are grabbing the points with Michigan.
However, despite a majority of tickets backing the Wolverines we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Auburn -7.5 to -8.5. Some shops are even up to -9. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of Auburn, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
At Circa, Auburn is only receiving 24% of spread bets but a hefty 58% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet discrepancy.
Favorites with at least a full-point of line movement in their favor, like Auburn here, are 14-9 ATS (61%) this March Madness.
Auburn has the better offensive efficiency (3rd vs 39th), effective field goal percentage (25th vs 51st), offensive rebound percentage (52nd vs 76th) and three-point shooting (47th vs 201st). The Tigers also take better care of the ball, ranking 5th in fewest turnovers compared to 324th for the Wolverines.
Sharps have also gotten down hard on the over, steaming the total up from 151 to 154.5. At DraftKings, the over is taking in 74% of bets and 84% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving 45% of bets and a whopping 93% of dollars. Both books are showing a heavy smart money discrepancy in favor of a higher scoring game.
