The single-greatest betting month in all of sports is in full swing. As a result, I wanted to bring the readers some suggested bets that I think everyone should consider. When I last did this for football season, I finished up almost $1,000 based on sample unit size, mostly thanks to lookahead lines and future bets carrying the weight. Let’s see if the in-season spread betting category fares better for me here than with football season. As always, this is not financial advice (unless the bets hit, then it was).
After having an ROI of +28.1% after the first two rounds of the tournament, the first day of the Sweet 16 was a brutal o-fer. Let’s see if we can get back to the momentum from the first four betting days of the tournament.
The rationale for each bet will follow the picks below. Without further ado, here they are…
Picks for the Sweet 16 action on Friday…
TypeBetOdds StakeProfitPropCoen Carr 8+ points vs Ole Miss-1153329PropCoen Carr 5+ rebounds vs Ole Miss-1253528PropJase Richardson 2+ threes vs Ole Miss +1002525StraightMichigan – Auburn 1st Half U72.5-1053029PropTrey Donaldson (UM) O10.5 Points-1151513
Futures (Will add more as tournament progresses)
TypeBetOdds StakeProfitPayoutParlayTo Reach Sweet 16 – Texas Tech & Michigan State +16268110178Future To Reach Sweet 16 – Oregon+25024600FutureLowest Seed in Elite Eight: 3-Seed (Placed: 3/26)+9001090TBDParlayTo Reach Final 4 – Duke & Houston (Placed: 3/24)+1712950TBD
Note that the above Futures log has had two additional bets added since the last round, as well.
For the detailed spreadsheet that includes which sportsbook I found each bet’s best odds at – in addition to the tip times for each game -check out the following link…
That’s also where the entire tournament’s bets will be tracked, in addition to future bets like “team to make the Sweet 16.”
ANALYSIS
Ole Miss is a bad rebounding team. On the offensive glass, their excuse is that they run to get back on defense to stop transition points, and that’s valid. On defense, they have no excuse. It’s a legit height issue. Coen Carr has had offensive rebounding success against far better rebounding teams. You combine both sides of the ball and I fail to see how Carr doesn’t get 5+ rebounds. If a couple of these are OREBs, and he adds a transition dunk and two free throws to the mix (which he’s trending upwards in while the rest of the team trends down), his 8+ points like looks equally as enticing.
Finally, continuing with this game, I will once again be locking in Jase Richardson 2+ threes. This is something the freshman guard did 8 of 9 games before the last game vs NM. Granted, he had a very concerning there halves in the last four that he played. However, in the wise words of the iconic Stephen Brooks, “The only thing more surprising than Jase Richardson’s clunker vs. New Mexico would be a repeat of it.” Going back to the well that has been nearly bulletproof for almost 2 months. They’re in a new venue and he should be back to his usual self. Plus, Ole Miss isn’t easy to drive on, so I expect a good amount of three point attempts overall.
In the Michigan-Auburn game, give me the Tre Donaldson revenge game against the team that processed him a year ago. He has been playing very well the last 6 weeks or so, outside of his two games against Michigan State. With Auburn having the front court to challenge UM’s two bigs, Donaldson should get 11+ points, which is what he averages in less favorable volume scripts.
Additionally, due to Auburn being able to somewhat mitigate Michigan frontcourt, as well as Michigan’s recent surge being thanks for them locking teams up on defense to a relatively impressive extent, I also like the first half under. I don’t take full game under’s because of free throw feats, so that’s why I’m choosing first half instead of the traditional total.
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