Starting 5, April 13: What’s at stake on final day of regular season

It’s the final day of the regular season! ONE GAME REMAINS for every team with seven seeds still to be decided in the West.

5 STORIES IN TODAY’S EDITION 🏀

April 13, 2025

What’s At Stake: 3 West Playoff seeds & all 4 West SoFi NBA Play-In Tournament seeds will be locked by the end of the day

Clippers-Warriors: It’s win and in as these two Cali teams square off on ESPN

West Deciders: Nuggets, Dubs, Grizz, Kings & Mavs earn their seeds on League Pass

Pistons-Bucks: Historic regular seasons close for Giannis, Detroit prior to Playoffs

East Roundup: A Play-In preview & final tune-ups highlight League Pass slate

1. WHAT’S AT STAKE DURING TODAY’S 15-GAME SLATE

Four teams. Three spots. One day to settle it all and complete the Playoff Picture

  • Denver clinches a Playoff spot with a win OR a loss by either Golden State or Minnesota
  • LA Clippers clinch a Playoff spot with a win OR a loss by either Denver or Minnesota
  • Golden State clinches a Playoff spot with a win OR a Minnesota loss
  • Minnesota clinches a Playoff spot with a win

Next, let’s look at which teams can finish at each seed in the West (rank entering Sunday is bolded).

  1. Oklahoma City (locked)
  2. Houston (locked)
  3. Los Angeles Lakers (locked)
  4. Denver, LA Clippers or Minnesota
  5. LA Clippers, Denver or Minnesota
  6. Golden State, Denver or Minnesota
  7. Minnesota, Golden State, Denver, LA Clippers or Memphis
  8. Memphis or Minnesota
  9. Sacramento or Dallas
  10. Dallas or Sacramento

Finally, let’s dive into the scenarios that get us to those seedings.

Denver can finish anywhere from 4-7:

  • 4 Seed: A DEN win, regardless of other outcomes
  • 5 Seed: A DEN loss AND a MIN loss
  • 6 Seed: A DEN loss AND a MIN win AND a LAC win
  • 7 Seed: A DEN loss AND a MIN win AND a GSW win

LA Clippers can finish 4, 5 or 7:

  • 4 Seed: A LAC win AND DEN loss, OR LAC loss AND MIN loss
  • 5 Seed: A LAC win AND DEN win, OR a LAC loss AND a loss by MIN OR DEN
  • 7 Seed: A LAC loss AND a win by MIN AND DEN

Golden State can finish 6 or 7:

  • 6 Seed: A GSW win regardless of other outcomes, OR a GSW loss AND MIN loss
  • 7 Seed: A GSW loss AND MIN win

Minnesota can finish anywhere from 4-8:

  • 4 Seed: A MIN win AND a DEN loss AND a LAC loss
  • 5 Seed: A MIN win AND a DEN win AND a LAC loss, OR a MIN win AND a DEN loss AND LAC win
  • 6 Seed: A MIN win AND a DEN win AND LAC win
  • 7 Seed: A MIN loss AND a MEM los
  • 8 Seed: A MIN loss AND MEM win

Memphis can finish 7 or 8:

  • 7 Seed: A MEM win AND MIN loss
  • 8 Seed: A MEM loss OR a MEM win AND MIN win

Sacramento can finish 9 or 10:

  • 9 Seed: A SAC win regardless of DAL outcome, OR a SAC loss and DAL loss
  • 10 Seed: A SAC loss AND DAL win

Dallas can finish 9 or 10:

  • 9 Seed: A DAL win AND SAC loss
  • 10 Seed: A DAL loss regardless of SAC outcome OR a DAL win AND SAC win

2. TODAY ON ESPN: IT’S WIN & IN FOR CLIPPERS AT WARRIORS

After laying out all of those scenarios above, sometimes it’s as simple as win and you’re in.

  • That’s what’s at stake today when the Warriors host the Clippers (3:30 ET, ESPN)
  • Both teams control their own destiny. A win secures a top-6 Playoff berth. A loss leaves the door to the Play-In open and dependent on other outcomes

Coming In Hot: The Clippers enter this pivotal match riding a seven-game win streak, which is tied with the Bucks for the longest active run in the league. In addition, the Clippers have won six straight over the Warriors, dating back to December 2023.

However, all three games this season came in 2024, prior to key additions for each team – Kawhi Leonard’s season debut on Jan. 4 (knee injury) and Jimmy Butler III’s Warriors debut on Feb. 8 (acquired via trade).

What’s happened since those debuts? Two of the season’s top duos emerged:

  • James Harden & Leonard: The Clippers are 25-11 when this duo shares the court this season, posting a 13.6 net rating – 10th among two-man lineups that have played 800+ minutes together
  • Steph Curry & Butler III: The Warriors are 22-4 with a 12.6 average margin of victory in the 26 games with this duo together

Three Things To Watch

  • Ball Security: The Clippers average the 10th most turnovers (14.9) in the league this season. Since acquiring Butler, the Warriors lead the NBA in both steals (10.7) and points off turnovers (22.8)
  • One-On-One: The Clippers lead the NBA in isolation scoring (12.6 ppg) with those plays accounting for 11.9% of their possessions. The Warriors allow the 8th most points on isos this season (7.5 ppg)
  • Pass The Rock: The Warriors lead the NBA in assist percentage (71.4%). Can they create open looks for one another against a Clippers defense that allows the 8th fewest assists per game (25.6)?

3. SEEDING ON THE LINE FOR NUGGETS, WOLVES, GRIZZLIES, KINGS & MAVS

In the West, much remains up in the air on the final day of the regular season. Seven of 10 seeds for the postseason will be decided today – including five on League Pass.

Nuggets at Rockets (3:30 ET): One more win for Denver secures the No. 4 spot. Houston’s fate is already sealed at No. 2, marking its first Playoff appearance since 2019-20 and most victories since 2018-19.

  •  Last Laugh: Regardless of his performance this evening, Nikola Jokić will conclude the regular season in unprecedented territory. He could be the first player ever to finish top three in ppg, rpg and apg since the per-game leaderboard was established in 1969-70

Jazz at Timberwolves (3:30 ET): Minnesota is in position to reach the postseason for the fourth consecutive year after making it just once across the 17 seasons prior. If the group handles business against Utah, they’ll ensure a top-6 seed.

  • F-Ant-Astic: Anthony Edwards’ career-high 27.4 ppg – 4th in the league – earns him a special place in Timberwolves lore. It’s the best mark by any player in the franchise’s 36-year history, passing Kevin Love (26.1) from 2013-14

Mavericks at Grizzlies (3:30 ET): Home-court advantage is at stake for both of these Play-In-bound squads. Memphis can earn it for the 7-v-8 game with a win and Minnesota loss, while Dallas can seal the deal at 9-v-10 with a win and Sacramento loss.

  • Worst To First? It might be in the cards for the Grizzlies. Their 105.8 ppg ranked last in 2023-24, but now just 0.4 shy of the 1st-place Cavaliers with 121.6, they could become the first-ever team to accomplish such a feat

Suns at Kings (3:30 ET): All Sacramento needs to do is fend off Phoenix to clinch a return to the Golden 1 Center for next Wednesday’s 9-v-10 Play-In contest. The Kings have dropped their last two games, but hold a 2-1 advantage in the season series against the Suns.

  • Double-Digit Dealer: Domantas Sabonis dropped 65 double-doubles in 2022-23 and hit 77 the following season. With his 60th on Friday, he became only the sixth player dating back to 1976-77 to reach that level three years in a row

And the action doesn’t end there. The No. 1 seed Thunder visit the Pelicans (3:30 ET), the No. 3 seed Lakers head north for the Blazers (3:30 ET) and the Spurs host the Raptors (3:30 ET) to close the regular season.

4. TODAY ON ESPN: HISTORIC REGULAR SEASONS CLOSE FOR PISTONS, GIANNIS

When the Pistons and Bucks meet today in Milwaukee (1 ET) in the back half of a home-and-home to close the regular season, their Playoff fates have already been sealed

  • Detroit will make its 1st Playoff appearance in six years, capping off one of the biggest single-season turnarounds in league history
  • Milwaukee will make its 9th straight Playoff appearance – second only to Boston’s 11 for the longest active streak in the NBA

Milwaukee’s Playoff streak – including the 2021 title – coincides with the rise of superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is wrapping up his 12th NBA season since entering the league as a teenager from Greece.

  • Back-To-Back: Last season, Giannis became the 1st player in NBA history to average 30+ ppg on 60%+ shooting. He enters the season finale (listed as doubtful on the injury report) set to do it again with 30.4 ppg (2nd in NBA) on 60.1% (6th)
  • Doing It All: Giannis has a career-best 11 triple-doubles this season and has elevated his playmaking in Damian Lillard’s absence. Since March 19, Giannis is averaging 31.2 ppg, 11.3 rpg and 8.6 apg
  • A Third Time for a First Time: Giannis is set to average at least 30 points, 10 rebounds and five assists for the third time in his career, passing Wilt Chamberlain and Oscar Robertson for the most such seasons in NBA history

Detroit’s return to the Playoff stage is the culmination of a breakthrough season for a young star and a revival of a proud franchise.

  • Cade Cunningham made the leap to All-Star this season, putting up career-best numbers – 26.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 9.1 apg – averages matched this season only by reigning MVP Nikola Jokić
  • New Coach, Key Vets: J.B. Bickerstaff has helped create a new culture and defensive focus (jumping from 25th to 10th in DefRtg) in his first year as a head coach, while veterans Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. added leadership and 570 made 3s
  • The Turnaround: With 44 wins, the Pistons more than tripled their win total from last season (14). The Pistons will finish with the 7th largest season-to-season increase in wins (30, or 31 with a win today) in NBA history

5. TODAY ON LEAGUE PASS: A PLAY-IN PREVIEW & FINAL TUNE-UPS IN THE EAST

In the East, the Playoff picture is finalized, but a Play-In sneak peek is in store while the conference’s top seeds get one last tune-up opportunity.

Magic at Hawks (1 ET): These two will clash Tuesday over in Orlando for the 7-v-8 Play-In game to formally open the postseason. For the time being, there’s history at hand on either side.

  • Shot Is Pure: The Cavs check several boxes for advanced scoring statistics, ranking 1st in offensive rating (121.3), true shooting percentage (60.9%) and effective field goal percentage (58.0%)
  • Not Far Behind: In their own right, the Pacers rank 3rd with 29.3 assists per game and a 48.9% field goal percentage. A 50th win would be their first such achievement since 2013-14

Pacers at Cavaliers (1 ET): Indiana can claim the season series against No. 1 seed Cleveland, in a matchup that’s one for the books with regards to their respective offenses.

  • Shot Is Pure: The Cavs check several boxes for advanced scoring statistics, ranking 1st in offensive rating (121.3), true shooting percentage (60.9%) and effective field goal percentage (58.0%)
  • Not Far Behind: In their own right, the Pacers rank 3rd with 29.3 assists per game and a 48.9% field goal percentage. A 50th win would be their first such achievement since 2013-14

Hornets at Celtics (1 ET): Among Jayson Tatum, Derrick White and Payton Pritchard – the first trio in NBA history with 250+ 3-pointers each in a season – only the latter will suit up today. The Play-In will dictate who No. 2 seed Boston faces in the first postseason test of its title defense.

Knicks at Nets (1 ET) New York, having secured the No. 3 seed, can close things out with a season sweep of Brooklyn and return to the win column after dropping three in a row. Towns and Jalen Brunson are questionable, but the Knicks are 37-20 when they do share the court.

A single-elimination contest looms for the No. 9-seeded Bulls and No. 10-seeded Heat on Wednesday in the SoFi NBA Play-In Tournament, but they’ll have today to work out some kinks against the 76ers and Wizards, respectively, at 1 ET.

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