The Tigers will have a huge matchup advantage tonight, and as a result, our SMU vs. Clemson predictions expect them to cover this 7-point spread.
Chris Hatfield • Betting Analyst
Mar 13, 2025 • 15:08 ET • 4 min read
The Clemson Tigers and SMU Mustangs will close the third round of the ACC Tournament on Thursday night.
SMU started slow against Syracuse last night but eventually blew the Orange out. The Mustangs seek a marquee win to give themselves an NCAA Tournament argument.
Clemson offers that but the Tigers have their eyes set on winning the entire tournament and building their resume. Our SMU vs. Clemson predictions side with the Tigers tonight; read more in our college basketball picks below.
Who will win SMU vs Clemson?
Clemson will win. SMU hasn’t shown the ability to beat anyone of real consequence this season, and it’s hard to see that changing against the third-best team in the conference.
The Mustangs face an uphill battle in which they can probably match Clemson’s offense, but their poor defense is easily the weakest unit on the floor. That will be the difference.
SMU vs Clemson prediction
My best bet: Clemson -7 (-110 at bet365)
Let’s note a few things: the Clemson Tigers beat Duke earlier this season, and the SMU Mustangs lost to the Blue Devils by nearly 40 points. Clemson beat Stanford by 17 points, and SMU lost by three. Lastly, Clemson defeated SMU by 10 on the road in the most recent meeting between these squads.
Comparing common opponents and their results isn’t always an iron-clad process. Still, in this case, it illustrates something we’ve seen throughout the ACC season: There’s an evident gulf in class between the Top 3 teams and the rest of the conference.
As such, I’m grabbing the Tigers to cover this 7-point spread as my best bet. The two defenses aren’t even close; that will be the difference.
So much of the SMU offense is run through the post, whether that’s on cut and rolls to the basket, which they run at an ACC-leading frequency, getting touches inside, and then working the ball out to shooters like Boopie Miller, Matt Cross, and Chuck Harris.
Clemson’s big men, like Viktor Lakhin and Ian Schieffelin, are extremely formidable and can cut off almost all forms of this offense. It’s what happened in the first meeting.
SMU struggled to score in the halfcourt, and it wasn’t because of some poor shooting night. The offense was effectively cut off, which led them to their second-lowest-scoring output of the season at home. We could see something similar play out; on the other end, Clemson has enough opportunities to score.
That’s where the Tigers own a decisive advantage in the form of bigs cutting to the basket. It’s one of the hallmarks of their offense, and again, the two big men are key. The Mustangs allow 1.08 points per possession on these sets. SMU can’t overcome that, and I’d play this to -8.
SMU vs Clemson same-game parlay (SGP)
Clemson -7
Viktor Lakhin Over 12.5 points
We paired our best bet with Viktor Lakhin to exceed his points total. In the most recent meeting, he scored 16 against SMU, and it’s easy to see why. It goes back to what we talked about above.
The most direct route to regular scoring in this game for Clemson is found on bigs cutting to the basket. Lakhin is the primary option and should be able to clear this point entirely off that action, If not, Clemson’s superiority on the glass will also get some dirty points.
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SMU vs Clemson odds
SMU vs Clemson live odds
SMU vs Clemson opening odds
- Spread: SMU +6 | Clemson -6
- Moneyline: SMU +210 | Clemson -260
- Over/Under: Over 144.5 | Under 144.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
SMU vs Clemson betting trend to know
Clemson has cashed the first-half moneyline in 27 of their last 36 games (+14.93 units / 2% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for SMU vs. Clemson.
How to watch SMU vs Clemson
Location Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC Date Thursday, 3-13-2025 Tip-off 9:30 p.m. ET TV ACC Network
SMU vs Clemson key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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