The San Diego Padres (22-11) and New York Yankees (19-15) clash in a showdown in the Bronx, as they open a 3-game series Monday. The first pitch from Yankee Stadium is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets. .. FanDuel Sportsbook’s
Season series: First meeting; Yankees won 2 of 3 meetings in 2024
San Diego has won 5 straight games and owns the second-best record in Major League Baseball. This series marks the middle of a 9-game road trip for the Padres, who are thus far 8-7 away from home. The Friars opened their current trip by sweeping a 3-game set at the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend.
The Yankees have faltered in back-to-back series and are 2-4 over their last 6 games. One Bronx Bomber who has not faltered has been OF Aaron Judge. The New York slugger heads into the first full week of May with a .423/.510/.777 slash line. Judge carries a 14-game hitting streak into Monday’s series opener.
Padres at Yankees projected starters
RHP Nick Pivetta vs. LHP Carlos Rodon
Pivetta (5-1, 1.78 ERA) is making his seventh start. He owns a 0.82 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 35 1/3 innings.
- Last outing: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 7-4 win vs. San Francisco Giants Tuesday
- Career vs. Yankees: 1-4, 6.99 ERA (47 2/3 IP, 37 ER), 47 H, 20 BB, 58 K in 13 appearances (8 starts)
- Owns a 1.73 ERA, with 31K against 5 BB, across his last 4 starts
Rodon (4-3, 3.43 ERA) is making his eighth start. He has logged a 0.98 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 through 42 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 15-3 win at Baltimore Orioles Tuesday
- Career vs. Padres: 2-2, 2.88 ERA (25 IP, 8 ER), 15 H, 13 BB, 22 K in 4 starts
- Owns a 2.34 ERA over his last 3 starts
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Padres at Yankees odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:23 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Yankees -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-180) | Yankees -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Padres at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 4, Padres 3
Moneyline
San Diego has gone just 2-4 over its last 6 games at Yankee Stadium. Last season, New York took 2 of 3 games from the Padres in San Diego, allowing just 6 runs along the way.
Pivetta has certainly not pitched poorly, but is pitching over his head with his current surface numbers. He has benefited from a .226 batting average on balls in play. Pivetta is a fly-ball pitcher who has been frequently barreled up so far. He’s facing a New York team that crushes fly-ball types.
Per ESPN, Rodon has held current San Diego batters to an aggregate .586 OPS. He’s backed by a bullpen in better shape at the back end.
Peg the Yankees as having support stats backing up a better record than what they bring into this series.
YANKEES (-150) are the value side here.
Run line/Against the spread
This game has an Under lean. AVOID trying to get the Yankees by with a cushion.
Over/Under
The last 9 Padres-Yankees games have netted a 6-2-1 edge for the Under. The last 10 games for each club have resulted in 7-3 records for the Under.
Indicators here swing both ways, but with a sliver of an edge toward a low-scoring affair on what figures to be a chilly evening with an inward breeze helping the hurlers. Consider a partial-unit play on the UNDER 7.5 (-110).
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