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Virna Jandiroba (21-3, 7-3 UFC) vs. Xiaonan Yan (19-4, 9-3 UFC)
ODDS: Jandiroba (-155), Yan (+130)
This clear clash of styles should help sort out the top of the women’s strawweight division, particularly if Jandiroba gets a win. Jandiroba has set herself up to be the freshest challenger on the horizon for champion Weili Zhang, but “Carcara” earning the title shot is far from a guarantee. She’s not a particularly exciting personality, and while she has been highly successful, her wrestling- and grappling-heavy style has never seemed to put her in the UFC’s good graces. In fact, Zhang could instead wind up challenging for the flyweight title instead of facing Jandiroba. For now, all Jandiroba can do is keep winning, which she has done to a great effect in the last three years, putting together a four-fight tear by circling back to what brought her to the dance. Most of her career has been a familiar arc, as she came up as a wrestling and grappling expert before developing a credible striking game. While a lot of grapplers have ruined their career paths by falling in love with things on the feet, Jandiroba has gone the correct route and used that as a supplement, selling out more than ever on a takedown-heavy approach to get past opponents like Marina Rodriguez, Lupita Godinez and Amanda Lemos. She even scored a submission in the last of those fights. That win over Lemos put her on the contender short list, but the thought is that she needs at least one more win to be completely undeniable, and picking off a recent title challenger in Yan would certainly be a statement.
Yan has gone the opposite developmental route. Coming to the UFC as a seemingly one-dimensional striker, Yan figured to get exposed by the first strong wrestler who came across her path. However, she kept managing to skate by in her first few trips to the Octagon, whether thanks to facing fellow strikers or catching better-known opponents at the right point late in their careers. After Carla Esparza wound up being the one to blow Yan’s game wide open in 2021, she regrouped in surprisingly strong fashion, becoming capable enough with her takedown defense to make her even more comfortable and effective as a pace-heavy striker. That was enough to march her to a title shot against Zhang about a year ago, which didn’t go particularly well. It instead served as an affirmation that, for all her improvements, Yan can still struggle against a particularly powerful wrestler. She looked sharp in a rebound win over Tabatha Ricci in November and figures to continue hanging among the strawweight elite. Jandiroba’s toughness should see her through, as she has been willing to make a fight sloppy and ugly if it means victory. Even if Yan can land some hard shots, Jandiroba seems dedicated enough to eat that offense if it means scoring a takedown in return. That could still result in a Yan win if Jandiroba cannot do much with her subsequent control time, but the call is that the Brazilian can turn this into an absolute grind and punch her ticket to a title shot, even if it’s not especially pretty. The pick is Jandiroba via decision.
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