Anthony Edwards’ late-season focus has the Wolves looking sharp as the playoffs draw near.
For the second straight season, the Los Angeles Lakers’ record is better than what it “should” be if we evaluated them based on point differential.
Through Sunday, the Lakers outscored their opponents by 1.4 points per game, a differential that ranks eighth in the West. But L.A. sits pretty comfortably in the top five in the standings.
The Minnesota Timberwolves, meanwhile, are one of three West teams that rank in the top 10 on both ends of the floor. But they’re in seventh place, four games in the loss column behind the Lakers, who don’t rank in the top 10 on either end of the floor.
The Lakers have been much better in close games than the Wolves: they are 20-13 (fifth best) in games that were within five points in the last five minutes, while Minnesota is 18-23 (seventh-worst). Point differential can be a better indicator than a team’s record of how good a team is, but late-game execution also matters a lot.
Here are the three teams with the biggest difference between their actual wins and their “expected” wins, based on point differential…
1. Washington: 15-51, with the point differential of a team that’s 10-56
2. Los Angeles Lakers: 41-25, with the differential of a team that’s 36-30
3. Portland: 29-39, with the differential of a team that’s 25-43
Here’s the other end of the spectrum …
1. Minnesota: 40-29, with the differential of a team that’s 45-24
2. Memphis: 43-25, with the differential of a team that’s 48-20
3. Boston: 49-19, with the differential of a team that’s 53-15
Plus-Minus Players of the Week
Teams of the Week
- Make It Last Forever: Minnesota (3-0) — The Wolves’ eight-game winning streak includes a fifth straight win over the Nuggets.
- Something Just Ain’t Right: Miami (0-4) — The Heat are testing the boundary of how far a former top-six team in the East can slide down the standings.
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East vs. West
Schedule strength through Week 21
- Toughest: 1. Toronto, 2. Washington, 3. New Orleans
- Easiest: 1. Cleveland, 2. Indiana, 3. New York
- Schedule strength is based on cumulative opponent record.
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Movement in the Rankings
- High jump of the week: Chicago (+3)
- Free falls of the week: Indiana (-4)
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Week 22 Team to Watch
- LA Clippers — Norman Powell is back and the Clippers’ offense has never been stronger. But they’ve reached the toughest part of their schedule with five games against the Cavs (x 2), Grizzlies, Thunder and Knicks over the next two weeks.
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Previously…
- Last week: Warriors enter Top 5, Wolves move up in Top 10
- The archive: NBA.com Power Rankings
OffRtg: Points scored per 100 possessions (League Rank)
DefRtg: Points allowed per 100 possessions (League Rank)
NetRtg: Point differential per 100 possessions (League Rank)
Pace: Possessions per 48 minutes (League Rank)
The league has averaged 113.5 points scored per 100 possessions and 99.7 possessions (per team) per 48 minutes this season.
NBA.com’s Power Rankings, released every Monday during the season, are just one man’s opinion. If you have an issue with the rankings, or have a question or comment for John Schuhmann, contact him via Bluesky.
Last Week:3
Record: 49-19
OffRtg: 119.2 (3) DefRtg: 110.4 (5) NetRtg: +8.7 (3) Pace: 97.2 (27)
On Wednesday, the Celtics surpassed their loss total from last season (64-18). Two nights later, they clinched no worse than sixth place in the East, extending their active playoff streak (longest in the league) to 11 years.
Three takeaways
- The Celtics went 2-2 in their four marquee matchups over their seven-game homestand, with the difference between the wins (107.4 points allowed per 100 possessions vs. the Nuggets and Lakers) and losses (126.2 per 100 allowed vs. Cleveland and Oklahoma City) being mostly about defense. It was noted in this space last week that Boston ranked second in opponent free throw rate, but the Thunder had 23 more attempts from the line than the Celtics (35-12) on Wednesday, with Jaylen Brown and Derrick White both fouling out.
- Kristaps Porzingis returned from an eight-game absence on Saturday, scoring a game-high 24 points (though he shot just 1-for-7 from 3-point range) in the Celtics’ win in Brooklyn. But Derrick White was out and Jaylen Brown left early with back spasms. The Celtics’ preferred starting lineup has still played together in just two of their last 17 games, and it’s still been outscored by 1.6 points per 100 possessions in its 307 minutes.
- The Celtics took 63 (67%) of their 93 shots from 3-point range in the loss to the Thunder, shooting just 2-for-11 from the corners. They eclipsed the 60% mark again two nights later in Miami and now account for 14 of the 18 instances where a team has taken more than 60% of its shots from beyond the arc this season. That’s a new record for games with a 3-point rate greater than 60%, topping the previous mark of 13, set by the 2018-19 Rockets.
After the Celtics host the Nets on Tuesday, they’ll begin their longest road trip of the season (six games over 11 days), which gets off to a slow start with games in Utah and Portland. With their win in Brooklyn over the weekend, they’re 25-3 against the bottom 11 teams in the league.
Week 22: vs. BKN, @ UTA, @ POR
Last Week:11↑
Record: 43-25
OffRtg: 114.0 (14) DefRtg: 109.3 (2) NetRtg: +4.7 (5) Pace: 99.0 (19)
The Rockets have taken advantage of a soft stretch of schedule to win six straight games and climb back to second place in the West.
Three takeaways
- Fred VanVleet returned from a five-game absence last week, but the Rockets were without Amen Thompson (ankle sprain) for all four games. With Tari Eason also sitting out the second game of a back-to-back, their win against the Bulls on Saturday was the first time since Jan. 1 that they started a game with their original lineup (Jabari Smith at the four). They’re 21-10 when that lineup has played together and have outscored opponents by 7.2 points per 100 possessions in its 443 minutes. That mark ranks eighth among 21 lineups that have played at least 200 minutes.
- The Rockets continue to lead the league by a wide margin in offensive rebounding percentage (36.4%) and outscored the Mavs by 27 second-chance points (29-2) on Friday. The difference wasn’t so big the following night against the Bulls, but Jalen Green sealed the win with a tip-in that put them up four with 14 seconds left.
- The Rockets became the sixth team to surpass its win total from last season (41-41) on Friday. After taking the league average drop into account, they’re one of four teams — the Pistons, Thunder and Blazers are the others — that have seen season-to-season improvement of at least one point per possession on both ends of the floor.
This is the second time the Rockets are 18 games above .500. The last time that happened (32-14), they lost six straight. But they still have three games left on a stretch of nine straight against teams with losing records and they’ll close their six-game homestand with a visit from the Sixers on Monday.
Week 22: vs. PHI, @ ORL, @ MIA, vs. DEN
Last Week:12
Record: 38-30
OffRtg: 112.5 (18) DefRtg: 109.3 (3) NetRtg: +3.2 (9) Pace: 98.5 (21)
The Clippers have won six of their last seven games and remain in the mix for a guaranteed playoff spot in the West, trailing the sixth-place Warriors by just a game and a half.
Three takeaways
- Norman Powell was back in the lineup on Sunday, having played less than nine total minutes over the previous 13 games. The Clippers’ offense had already picked up without him and has now scored 119.2 points per 100 possessions (seventh in the league) over their last 11 games, up from 111.2 (21st) previously. They’ve scored at least 120 per 100 in each of their last four games and are now 19-3 when they’ve done so.
- Ivica Zubac has averaged 20.4 points on 66% shooting over this 11-game stretch and has now been assisted by James Harden 169 times. That’s 24 more assists than any other player has to a single teammate and comes at a rate of 3.4 per 36 minutes on the floor together, up from 2.7 per 36 last season. Zubac had eight assists in the Clippers’ win over Charlotte on Sunday.
- Bogdan Bogdanović has also seen dramatic improvement, registering an effective field goal percentage of 67.4% over the last eight games, up from 46.6% over his first eight games with the Clippers. He scored a season-high 30 points in their win in Miami on Wednesday.
The Clippers’ win Sunday over the Hornets started a four-game homestand that gets much tougher going forward. Five of their next six games are against teams — the Cavs (x 2), Grizzlies, Thunder and Knicks — in the top seven in the league. They’re 2-0 against Memphis, but 0-3 against Oklahoma City, having yet to face the best team in the West with Kawhi Leonard in uniform.
Week 22: vs. CLE, vs. MEM, vs. OKC
Last Week:19↑
Record: 32-37
OffRtg: 107.8 (28) DefRtg: 109.3 (4) NetRtg: -1.5 (17) Pace: 96.7 (29)
The Magic went 3-2 on a pretty tough road trip that was bookended by impressive wins in Milwaukee and Cleveland, with the latter ending the Cavs’ 16-game winning streak.
Three takeaways
- The game in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon was a matchup of the league’s best and worst 3-point shooting teams. The Magic (13-for-31) won the battle beyond the arc, with the Cavs going 0-for-4 on 3-pointers to tie or take the lead in the final minute. The Magic have shot 36% or better from 3-point range in six of their last nine games, having done so in just 11 of their first 60.
- Five Magic players have shot better than 40% on at least 20 attempts from deep over these last nine games. They’re led by Paolo Banchero (24-for-59, 41%), who also had the go-ahead jumper from the free-throw line on Sunday. Banchero has averaged 29.1 points on an effective field goal percentage of 52.6% over the last 15 games, up from 19.7 on 43.6% over his first 15 games after returning from an extended absence.
- The Magic won on Sunday despite having nine fewer shooting opportunities than the Cavs. They still rank second in shooting-opportunity differential, having averaged 4.4 per game more than their opponents.
The Magic’s reward for their win in Cleveland is a week where they’re only playing twice. Their game against the Rockets (who lead the league in shooting opportunity differential) on Wednesday is a rematch of a 13-point Houston win from last week in which the teams combined to score just 98.4 points per 100 possessions.
Week 22: vs. HOU, @ WAS
Last Week:18
Record: 31-37
OffRtg: 114.7 (10) DefRtg: 116.7 (27) NetRtg: -1.9 (19) Pace: 98.6 (20)
The door to the Western Conference Play-In Club remains wide open for the Suns, who aren’t quite sure that they want to pay the cover charge.
Three takeaways
- The Suns got a solid win over the Kings on Friday, shooting 24-for-43 (56%) from 3-point range. It was the 15th game in which they took more than half of their shots from 3-point range, something they did just four times last season. Overall, they’ve seen the league’s fourth biggest jump in 3-point rate (+6.0%), though that’s come more at the expense of shots in the paint (-3.6%) than from mid-range (-2.3%).
- The Bol Bol Experiment appears to be over. After starting eight straight games, Bol came off the bench in Houston on Wednesday, and then played 43 total seconds over the Suns’ two games over the weekend. Despite how big they are, the Suns have allowed 121.4 points per 100 possessions in 180 total minutes with Bol and Kevin Durant on the floor alongside Nick Richards or Mason Plumlee.
- Given their schedule, the Suns will probably need to beat better teams than the Kings to catch Dallas. But with their losses in Memphis, Houston and L.A. last week, they’re 1-10 since Feb. 1 against the 14 teams currently over .500, having allowed 123.5 per 100 over those 11 games.
To move up in the Western Conference, the Suns will also have to wins some games against the East. The second game of their Sunday-Monday back-to-back is the start of a five-game homestand in which all five games are against Eastern Conference opponents. It starts with a visit from the Raptors, to whom Suns lost by 18 points a few weeks ago.
Week 22: vs. TOR, vs. CHI, vs. CLE
Last Week:24↑
Record: 24-44
OffRtg: 110.1 (26) DefRtg: 114.5 (17) NetRtg: -4.5 (24) Pace: 100.1 (12)
The Raptors’ soft March schedule has them 6-2 this month, though they blew a 15-point, second-half lead in Portland on Sunday.
Two takeaways
- The Blazers grabbed a couple of key offensive rebounds down the stretch on Sunday, and the loss ended a streak of nine straight games in which the Raptors outscored their opponents on second chances. They rank second in offensive rebounding percentage since the All-Star break, up from 10th before the break and 18th last season. Colin Castleton (11.3%), Orlando Robinson (10.8%) and Jakob Poeltl (9.9%) rank 10th, 13th and 17th, respectively, among 228 individuals who’ve averaged at least 20 minutes in five post-break games or more.
- Overall though, the schedule has been more helpful on the other end of the floor, where the Raptors have allowed just 109.3 points per 100 possessions (third best) since the All-Star break, down from 115.8 (26th) before the break. That’s the league’s biggest improvement, with league-average efficiency rising since the break.
The Raptors have just two games remaining against teams with winning records, and the first is at Golden State on Thursday, the end of their four-game trip. They’re just 6-30 (with seven straight losses) against the 14 teams currently over .500, though one of those six wins came against the (pre-Butler) Warriors in January.
Week 22: @ PHX, @ GSW, vs. SAS
Last Week:27
Record: 23-44
OffRtg: 111.3 (21) DefRtg: 116.4 (26) NetRtg: -5.1 (25) Pace: 97.8 (26)
The Sixers are playing a bunch of other bad teams over these last several weeks of the season, so they’re going to pick up some wins here and there, no matter who’s in the lineup. One of those came in Dallas on Sunday afternoon.
Two takeaways
- The Sixers have now been without all three of their stars for the last six games. They have been better offensively (113.7 points scored per 100 possessions, 18th) than defensively (120.8 allowed per 100, 25th) over that stretch. Nine Sixers have averaged double-figures (in 2-6 games) since Paul George last played.
- Before March 1, Quentin Grimes had recorded a usage rate of 30% or higher in just two of his 232 career games. He’s now done so four times in eight games this month, and he’s averaged 29.3 points on an effective field goal percentage of 59.3% over his last four games. He’s no longer just an off-ball shooter and for the season, he’s registering career-high marks for both free throw rate (23 attempts per 100 shots from the field) and the percentage of his shots that have come in the paint (37%).
Their win in Dallas on Sunday was the start of the Sixers’ second six-game road trip, and they’ll be at a rest disadvantage in Houston on Monday.
Week 22: @ HOU, @ OKC, @ SAS, @ ATL
