Padres vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Picks - May 6

Data Skrive

The New York Yankees will look to Aaron Judge for continued success at the plate when they hit the field against Manny Machado and the San Diego Padres on Tuesday, in the first game of a two-game series at Yankee Stadium. The Padres are -113 moneyline favorites for this matchup with the Yankees (-107). San Diego (-1.5) is the favorite on the run line. The over/under is 8 runs for the contest (with -120 odds to hit the over and +100 odds to go under).

Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Padres-Yankees game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Check out the best moments from the Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees on Sunday, May 4th.

Padres vs. Yankees Game Information & Odds

When: Tuesday, May 6, 2025 at 7:05 p.m. ET
Where: Yankee Stadium in The Bronx, New York
How to watch on TV: TBS, YES, and SDPA

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Run Line Favorite Run Line Odds Underdog Run Line Odds Padres -113 -107 8 -120 +100 -1.5 +180 -220

Padres vs. Yankees Prediction

Score Prediction: Yankees 5, Padres 4
Total Prediction: Under 8 runs
Win Probabilities: Padres 52%, Yankees 48%

Padres vs. Yankees Betting Insights

The Padres have won 13, or 76.5%, of the 17 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
San Diego has a record of 12-4, a 75% win rate, when favored by -113 or more by bookmakers this season.
The moneyline for this contest implies a 53.1% chance of a victory for the Padres.
The Yankees have come away with one win in the six contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
New York has won all of its five games in which it was named as at least a -107 moneyline underdog.
Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Yankees have a 51.7% chance of pulling out a win.

Padres Recent Betting Performance

The Padres went 2-2 across the four games they were moneyline favorites in their last 10 matchups.
In their last 10 matchups — all had a set run total — the Padres and their opponents combined to go over the total three times.
The Padres’ ATS record is 6-4-0 over their past 10 games.

Padres Recent Stats

Stat Avg/Total Record 6-4 Runs Per Game 3.2 HR 6 ERA 2.43 K/9 9.8

Padres Player Insights

Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the Padres in home runs (eight), runs batted in (18) and has put up a team-best batting average of .328.
Including all MLB hitters, Tatis ranks seventh in batting average, eighth in on-base percentage, and eighth in slugging.
Machado is hitting .295 with 11 doubles, three home runs and 13 walks.
Machado ranks 129th in homers and 103rd in RBI among all batters in MLB.
Machado enters this game looking for his sixth game in a row with a hit. In his last five games he is batting .421 with a double, a home run, three walks and three RBI.
Luis Arraez has four doubles, a triple, three home runs and five walks while batting .306.
Xander Bogaerts is batting .243 with nine doubles, a home run and 15 walks.

Yankees Recent Betting Performance

The Yankees have been underdogs twice in the last 10 games and lost both contests.
When it comes to hitting the over, the Yankees and their opponents are 3-7-0 in their last 10 games with a total.
Over their last 10 games, the Yankees are 4-6-0 against the spread.

Yankees Recent Stats

Stat Avg/Total Record 5-5 Runs Per Game 5.5 HR 16 ERA 2.66 K/9 9.2

Yankees Player Insights

Judge leads the squad with a batting average of .423, and paces the Yankees in home runs, with 11 and runs batted in with 33.
In all of the majors, Judge is second in home runs and first in RBI.
Judge carries a 14-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last 10 games he is hitting .450 with two doubles, two triples, four home runs, five walks and eight RBI.
Paul Goldschmidt is batting .349 with eight doubles, three home runs and 10 walks.
Among all major league batters, Goldschmidt is 129th in homers and 62nd in RBI.
Ben Rice is batting .255 with five doubles, a triple, eight home runs and 14 walks.
Anthony Volpe is batting .233 with 10 doubles, five home runs and 15 walks.

Check out the best moments from the Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees on Sunday, May 4th.

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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