Pacers vs. Bucks: Can Indiana stop Giannis? Key matchups, schedule and prediction

The Eastern Conference’s fourth-seeded Indiana Pacers (50-32) will face the fifth-seeded Milwaukee Bucks (48-34) in the first round of the 2025 NBA playoffs. This is a rematch of a first-round series from last season, when the sixth-seeded Pacers upset their third-seeded Central Division rivals, 4-2.

Nobody will mistake the Pacers for a juggernaut. The sum of their parts when maximized is a 50-win No. 4 seed — your average playoff team, which is precisely what they have been all season. Nobody should be surprised if Indiana loses in the first round of the playoffs or returns to the Eastern Conference finals.

Their stars, Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, are both fringe All-NBA candidates. They are the class of players who can keep their team in any series but cannot dominate a best-of-seven set. Haliburton is an exceptional playmaker but a reluctant scorer. Siakam does everything well and nothing exceptionally. Together they have outscored opponents by 6.8 points per 100 possessions — very good but not great.

The Pacers’ supporting cast, epitomized by T.J. McConnell, is similarly heavy on substance and light on flash. Myles Turner is a quality rim protector and floor spacer from the center position. None of their young and talented contributors should be mistaken for a third star in the making. But Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith and Obi Toppin have each assumed roles that contribute to winning.

As a group the Pacers field seven (and nearly eight) double-digit scorers. That has translated to a top-10 offense and a middling defense, the type of team that requires a collective effort to remain competitive.

The Bucks are here by way of Giannis Antetokounmpo, an All-NBA first-team lock for a seventh straight season. Everything else for the 2021 NBA champions is crumbling around their perennial MVP candidate.

Antetokounmpo averaged 30.4 points (on 60/22/62 shooting splits), 11.9 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game, about what he averaged the previous six seasons. We are numb to his greatness. Only seven times in NBA history has someone averaged the equivalent of a 30-12-6. Oscar Robertson did it in the 1961-62 season. Nikola Jokić matched it this year. And Antetokounmpo has done it in five of the last six seasons.

That consistency allowed the Bucks to navigate the rocky road around Antetokounmpo. Where once he had high-level teammates to share his burden, he now has a series of question marks. Blood clots have sidelined Damian Lillard since mid-March. Milwaukee turned a shell of Khris Middleton into Kyle Kuzma. Brook Lopez just turned 37 years old. And Bobby Portis only just returned from a 25-game suspension.

A.J. Green, a.k.a. Dairy Bird, and a trio of newcomers — Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince and Kevin Porter Jr. — combined to shoot 42.5% on 17.5 3-point attempts per game. That provided Antetokounmpo with enough of an arsenal to overcome a 2-8 start to the season, sustain a top-10 offensive rating and win 48 games.

The Bucks won their regular-season series with the Pacers, 3-1.

Haliburton and Siakam were both good in those meetings. Haliburton averaged 17 points and 10.3 assists per game against the Bucks. Siakam averaged 24 points and 8.5 rebounds. They needed more from their supporting cast, which was missing Nesmith for the first two losses to Milwaukee. He scored 30 points in Indiana’s only win against its rival, and even then the Pacers required a miracle to beat the Bucks by one.

Meanwhile, Antetokounmpo was a monster every night against Indiana. He was even more efficient than his usual production, averaging 30-12-8 on 65% shooting from the field over the four games. It did not matter much how Lillard performed. He twice scored 20-plus and twice shot worse than 30% against the Pacers. Regardless, the Bucks netted a high-powered 118.1 points per 100 possessions opposite Indiana.

Can Giannis power the Bucks past the Pacers? (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

(Andy Lyons via Getty Images)

Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Pascal Siakam

Nobody has spent more time defending Antetokounmpo than Siakam did in parts of 130 possessions over a total of 27 minutes this season, according to the NBA’s tracking data. In those minutes Giannis scored 47 points on 67% shooting (22-33 FG). Turner might have been a worse option against the Greek Freak, allowing 38 points on 56% shooting (14-25 FG) in only 39 possessions, per the tracking data.

Quite simply: The Pacers have nobody who can stop Giannis. This is where we remind you that he missed the entirety of last year’s first-round series between the two teams, paving the way for Indiana’s victory.

The only thing we know for sure is that Antetokounmpo and Lopez will be on the floor down the stretch of close games. We have no idea whether Lillard will be available at all in this series. As one of the game’s great closers, he will be sorely missed. The rest of head coach Doc Rivers’ closing lineup is anyone’s guess.

Kuzma was acquired to be in this mix. Prince should be there, too, since Rivers loves him some veterans. Green, Porter and Ryan Rollins could find crunch time hard to come by for this very reason. Assuming Portis cannot be trusted in clutch situations, that leaves Trent. And he is as streaky as they come. Rivers will be tinkering with his rotations well into this series, riding hot hands and hoping the defense survives.

Head coach Rick Carlisle’s job is easier in this sense. He rides Haliburton, Siakam, Turner, Nembhard and either Mathurin or Nesmith, depending on a need for offense or defense. Both units are double-digit points per 100 meaningful possessions better than their opponents, according to Cleaning the Glass. More effective against Milwaukee has been the defensive-minded unit with Nesmith (+12.4 net rating).

Antetokounmpo is building a résumé that has him on pace to finish as one of the 20 greatest players to ever live. His team has lost in the first round of the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. And they could fail to reach the second round for a third straight year. But do not bet on it.

(Via BetMGM)

Indiana Pacers (-200)

Milwaukee Bucks (+165)

Game 1: Sat., April 19 @ Indiana (1 p.m., ESPN)

Game 2: Tue., April 22 @ Indiana (7 p.m., NBATV)

Game 3: Fri., April 25 @ Milwaukee (8 p.m., ESPNU/NBATV)

Game 4: Sun., April 27 @ Milwaukee (9:30 p.m., TNT)

*Game 5: Tue., April 29 @ Indiana (TBD)

*Game 6: Fri., May 2 @ Milwaukee (TBD)

*Game 7: Sun., May 4 @ Indiana (TBD)

*if necessary

East: Cavaliers-Heat • Celtics-Magic • Knicks-Pistons • Pacers-Bucks