• What: No. 2-seed Michigan State vs. 6-seed Mississippi, NCAA tournament South Regional semifinal
• When: 7:09 p.m. Friday
• Where: State Farm Arena, Atlanta
• TV/Radio: CBS/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 201
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 29-6 overall after winning its first two NCAA tournament games. The Spartans finished 17-3 in the Big Ten, winning the league outright. Mississippi is 24-11 overall after its two NCAA tournament wins. The Rebels finished 10-8 in SEC play.
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• Betting line: MSU -3.5
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 735-301 in his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Mississippi — Chris Beard is 280-120 in his 13th season as a head coach, including 44-23 in his second season with the Rebels. Notably, he was the coach of the Texas Tech team that beat MSU in the 2019 Final Four.
• Series: This is only the second meeting between the two programs, with MSU winning the previous game, in the second round of the 1999 NCAA tournament.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 4.3
F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 7.8
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 12.7
G (11) Jase Richardson (6-3) 11.9
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.4
Mississippi
C (0) Malik Dia (6-9) 10.7
F (14) Dre Davis (6-6) 10.3
G (11) Matthew Murrell (6-4) 10.7
G (3) Sean Pedulla (6-1) 15.2
G (5) Jaylen Murray (5-11) 10.5
• MSU update: The Spartans enter the regional semifinals after two hard-fought NCAA tournament wins, over Bryant and then New Mexico. In neither game did MSU have control until the second half. This is MSU’s 16th Sweet 16 under Tom Izzo. Only Duke has more Sweet 16 appearances since Izzo made his first 27 years ago. MSU’s last Sweet 16 was two years ago in New York, where the Spartans lost to Kansas State in overtime. MSU is No. 5 nationally in defensive efficiency, per Kenpom, and No. 1 defending the 3-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 27.8% from long range, and No. 8 in defensive rebounding percentage. The Spartans’ bugaboo is inconsistency with outside shooting, making just 31% of their own 3-point tries, which is 323rd nationally.
MORE: Couch: Jaden Akins met the moment Sunday in leading Michigan State to the Sweet 16
• Ole Miss update: The Rebels arrive in the Sweet 16 after impressive wins over North Carolina and No. 3-seed Iowa State. They also have wins this season over Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, BYU and Arkansas (twice) — all teams still alive in the NCAA tournament. This is Ole Miss’ first NCAA tournament since 2019 and its first Sweet 16 since 2001, which is as far as the Rebels have ever gone in an NCAA tournament. Like MSU, Ole Miss has a balanced lineup, even if not as deep. All five starters average in double figures, with four of them at around 10 points per game.
• Matchup analysis: The Rebels present some challenges for MSU — the way they switch everyone defensively, how their guards dig down to help their bigs, the way they sacrifice offensive rebounding to get back in transition, the ability of their 5 man, Malik Dia, get downhill on the drive and also hit 3-pointers. The Spartans should have a decent edge on the glass. Ole Miss ranks in the 300s in offensive rebounding percentage and isn’t that much better on the defensive end. The matchup with Dia is probably the most interesting for MSU. Is that Carson Cooper’s assignment? Can Jaxon Kohler defend him, given that Kohler’s offense could be an issue for Dia on the other end. Can the Spartans play a center on Ole Miss’ undersized 4 man, Dre Davis, and play two bigs or even try Coen Carr on Dia? Rebels’ guard Sean Pedulla is a fantastic player and a dangerous shooter. But MSU has faced guards like him and done OK. The other big question is whether MSU can generate enough offense if it’s stuck in the half-court against a defense that requires you to break guys down individually, and whether the Spartans are able to get out and run some, which would make life a lot easier. These are two teams built on toughness and connectedness, two teams that don’t deviate from their identities. It’s hard to forecast.
MORE: Couch: How Michigan State’s basketball team grew into becoming Big Ten champions
• Prediction: I think MSU’s A-game would beat Ole Miss’ A-game more often than not. But last weekend, the Rebels played closer to that level more often than MSU did. If Jase Richardson plays like the Jase Richardson we’ve seen regularly since the beginning of February and the Spartans can get at least one of their other guards to knock down some outside shots, I like MSU’s chances at figuring this out and moving on.
• Make it: MSU 70, Ole Miss 66
MORE: Couch: Inside Jase Richardson’s road from career-threatening surgery to MSU basketball revelation
Contact Graham Couch at [email protected]. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
