• What: No. 2-seed Michigan State vs. No. 15-seed Bryant, NCAA tournament first round
• When: 10 p.m. Friday
• Where: Rocket Arena, Cleveland
• TV/Radio: TBS/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 202
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 27-6 overall and finished 17-3 in the Big Ten, winning the league outright. Bryant is 23-11 overall and finishing 14-2 in the America East, winning the league outright and the conference tournament.
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• Betting line: MSU -17.5
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 733-301 in his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Bryant — Phil Martelli Jr. is 43-24 in his second season as a head coach, both at Bryant.
• Series: This is the first meeting between the two programs. Bryant moved from Division II to Division I in 2008.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 4.5
F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 8.0
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 12.7
G (11) Jase Richardson (6-3) 12.0
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.4
Bryant
C (22) Keyshawn Mitchell (7-0) 8.6
PF (5) Barry Evans (6-8) 13.5
G (7) Connor Withers (6-8) 11.3
G (24) Rafael Pinzon (6-6) 18.5
G (0) Earl Timberlake (6-6) 15.5
• MSU update: The Spartans enter the NCAA tournament as the No. 2 seed in the South Region, their best seed since 2019, when they were also a 2 seed and reached the Final Four. MSU has won eight of its last nine games, eight in a row before falling to Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament semifinals. Freshman Jase Richardson’s emergence has elevated MSU’s ceiling since the beginning of February. He’s averaging 17.3 points per game over the last 11 games. The Spartans are No. 5 nationally in defensive efficiency, per kenpom, No. 28 in offensive efficiency, No. 20 in offensive rebounding percentage and No. 8 in defensive rebounding. The two numbers that really jump out, however, are beyond the arc, where MSU is No. 328 in 3-point shooting at 30.8% (though 32.8 since the beginning of Big Ten play), but No. 2 nationally in 3-point defense, allowing opponents to make just 27.9% of their 3s.
• Bryant update: Bryant reached the NCAA tournament by winning the America East Conference tournament — beating Maine 79-59 — after winning the regular season by a game over Vermont. This is Bryant’s second NCAA tournament appearance since moving to Division I in 2008. In 2022, the Bulldogs were a 16 seed then and lost in the play-in game. Bryant is No. 148 in Kenpom, having faced only one high-major team all season. The Bulldogs lost 99-77 at St. John’s (which, like MSU, is a 2 seed in this NCAA tournament) on Dec. 11. Their best win, via Kenpom, is at No. 186 Drexel on Dec. 2. The Bulldogs are coached by Phil Martelli Jr., son of the famed St. Joseph’s coach and former Michigan assistant, who’s a close friend of Izzo. Martelli Jr. joked on Thursday that he *thinks* his dad is rooting for his team over MSU, but he’s not sure.
• Matchup analysis: It’ll be interesting to see how Bryant reacts to the severe step up in competition. It’s a tough thing to prepare for when your league doesn’t have anything like Michigan State. The Bulldogs do some things very well — they’re No. 2 nationally in block rate (via Kenpom) and play at a pace that’s in the top 10 in college basketball without turning the ball over very often. Again, those numbers weren’t produced in the Big Ten. But their offense moves and you’ve got to be disciplined to defend it.
One key question is how 6-foot-6 Rafael Pinzon handles being checked by someone like Jaden Akins and MSU’s collective perimeter defense. When Pinzon has room to operate or is left open, he’s a problem. How will he adjust to MSU’s physical style and attention on the perimeter? It’s not that he doesn’t know MSU’s level — he played his first two seasons at St. John’s, but he wasn’t the focal point of defenses then. Earl Timberlake is another good player and big guard for Bryant who has the ball in his hands a lot and can create for himself and others. Bryant wants to run and get up shots quickly. That’s a dangerous way to play the Spartans if you don’t have the superior talent. But Martelli Jr. said Thursday that they have to be true to who they are, which means that’s how they’ll play. MSU is happy to try to control the glass, rebound and run with you. Bryant will have to shoot a high percentage to stay in this game.
MORE: Couch: How Michigan State’s basketball team grew into becoming Big Ten champions
• Prediction: After what happened in 2016, no one around MSU will ever take a first-round matchup for granted again, especially as a 2 seed against a 15 seed. But this is a good matchup for MSU because of Bryant’s preferred pace and the Spartans’ depth and size on the interior. If this game is played in the open court, at some point the Spartans will go on a run. One of their strengths has been shutting the door after that happens.
• Make it: MSU 86, Bryant 70
MORE: Couch: Inside Jase Richardson’s road from career-threatening surgery to MSU basketball revelation
Contact Graham Couch at [email protected]. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
