• What: 2-seed Michigan State vs. 1-seed Auburn, NCAA tournament South Regional final
• When: 5:05 p.m. Sunday
• Where: State Farm Arena, Atlanta
• TV/Radio: CBS/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 201
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 30-6 overall after winning its first three NCAA tournament games. The Spartans finished 17-3 in the Big Ten, winning the league outright. Auburn is 31-5 overall after its three NCAA tournament wins. The Tigers finished 15-3 in SEC play, winning the league outright. They are the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament.
Need a break? Play the USA TODAY Daily Crossword Puzzle.
• Betting line: Auburn -5
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 736-301 in his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Auburn — Bruce Pearl is 705-267 in his 30th season as a head coach, including 243-122 in 11 seasons with the Tigers. He previously coached at Tennessee, Milwaukee and Division-II Southern Indiana.
• Series: The programs have only met once, back in November 1989 in the first game of the now-defunct Great Alaska Shootout, a game won by MSU at the beginning of a Big Ten championship season.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 4.3
F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 7.6
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 12.8
G (11) Jase Richardson (6-3) 12.2
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.3
Auburn
C (44) Dylan Cardwell (6-11) 4.9
PF (4) Johni Broome (6-10) 18.5
G (10) Chad Baker-Mazara (6-7) 12.3
G (13) Miles Kelly (6-6) 11.5
G (2) Denver Jones (6-4) 11.0
• MSU update: The Spartans are back in the Elite Eight for the first time since 2019 and for the 11th time under Tom Izzo. They’re 8-2 in previous regional finals in the Izzo era, with the only two defeats coming in 2003 and 2014. The key for this MSU team might just be to get to 69 points before Auburn does. So far, the 30-6 Spartans are 27-0 when they get to 69 first, as they did in Friday night’s 73-70 win over Mississippi. MSU’s defensive efficiency numbers continue to climb. The Spartans are now No. 4 nationally, per Kenpom.com.
MSU’s outside shooting during the NCAA tournament remains in line with its season numbers, with MSU making 20 of 61 3s thus far, just under 33%. The Spartans’ free-throw shoot numbers have remained solid — they’re 53-for-71 (75%) — and they continue to get to the line a ton. They made 19 of 22 free-throw tries against the Rebels on Friday. MSU junior Coen Carr is the MSU player whose performance in the NCAA tournament has jumped the most. He’s averaging 13.7 points and 6 rebounds through three games, after averaging about 8 points and 3.5 rebounds during the regular season.
• Auburn update: The Tigers are in the Elite Eight for the third time ever and the first time since 2019, when both they and MSU reached the Final Four. Auburn is the No. 1 overall seed in this tournament because for most of the season the Tigers played like the nation’s best team. That changed late in the season, with three losses in four games, albeit two of them were to Alabama and Tennessee, two teams still left in the Elite Eight. The advanced metrics tell the story — Auburn is No. 3 in offensive efficiency, per Kenpom, and No. 5 in defensive efficiency, a combination that historically gives you a great chance to win a national championship.
While senior power forward Johni Broome is deservedly Auburn’s headliner (averaging 10.8 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 2.1 blocks, to go with his 18.5 point per game), the Tigers, like MSU, have a freshman guard who’s made a huge difference. Tahaad Pettiford, who averages 11.8 points per game on the season, has scored 59 points through three NCAA tournament games, including 20 in the Tigers’ 78-65 come-from-behind win over Michigan in the Sweet 16 on Friday night.
• Matchup analysis: There’s a reason Auburn was considered the No. 1 team in the country much of the season, and you could see it as the Tigers flipped the game on Michigan in the second half Friday night. They’ve got guards who are shot-makers and can create for themselves, and size in the paint — height and girth — including a power forward in Johni Broome who will test the strength of MSU’s big men as much as any the Spartans have faced. This is a very different matchup for MSU than facing Ole Miss, which is coached by a defensive wizard in Chris Beard and is tenacious and disciplined. Auburn will get after you on the defensive end but is elite because it has the pieces. Offensively, Bruce Pearl lets his guards play with a lot of freedom. This isn’t an undisciplined Tigers team — they don’t turn the ball over very often and defend the 3-point line and the rim at an elite level — but it’s less system based.
The Spartans are likely to go back to starting Szymon Zapala and playing two bigs, because Auburn will often have two guys 6-10 or above in the game together. Checking Auburn’s perimeter shot-makers could be just as challenging. The Tigers have four volume 3-point shooters — Denver Jones, Miles Kelly, Chad Baker-Mazara and Tahaad Pettiford — shooting 37% or better from beyond the arc.
MORE: Couch: How Michigan State’s basketball team grew into becoming Big Ten champions
• Prediction: In terms of pound-for-pound talent, this will be MSU’s biggest challenge of the season thus far. I’ve learned time after time not to doubt this MSU team. But here we are again.
• Make it: Auburn 78, MSU 70
MORE: Couch: Inside Jase Richardson’s road from career-threatening surgery to MSU basketball revelation
Contact Graham Couch at [email protected]. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
