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The No. 9 seed Sacramento Kings are set to host the No. 10 seed Dallas Mavericks in a Western Conference 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament game on Wednesday. Dallas finished the regular season with a 39-43 overall record and a 17-25 road record, while Sacramento finished at 40-42 overall and 20-21 at home. The winner of this game will face Memphis on Thursday with the No. 8 seed in the West on the line. The Kings won all three matchups between these teams during the regular season. Anthony Davis (adductor) is listed as probable for Dallas, while Jake LaRavia (thumb) and Malik Monk (calf) are both out for Sacramento.
Tipoff is at 10 p.m. ET from the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, Calif. Sacramento is the 5.5-point favorite in the latest Kings vs. Mavericks odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under for total points scored is 213.5, which is a big decrease from opening at 224.5. Sacramento is at -221 on the money line (risk $221 to win $100), while Dallas is at +183 (risk $100 to win $183). Before locking in any Mavericks vs. Kings picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 156-115 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model has simulated Mavericks vs. Kings 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Mavs vs. Kings:
- Mavericks vs. Kings spread: Sacramento -5.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Mavericks vs. Kings over/under: 213.5 points
- Mavericks vs. Kings money line: Sacramento -221, Dallas +183
- DAL: The Mavs are 38-42-2 against the spread this season
- SAC: The Kings are 36-45-1 against the spread this season
- Mavericks vs. Kings picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Mavericks vs. Kings streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Mavericks can cover
All-Star forward Davis is expected to play for the Mavericks in this game. He presence and postseason experience will give Dallas a massive boost in its front court. In nine games with the Mavs, Davis is averaging 20.0 points, 10.1 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 2.2 blocks per game.
Dallas also has a solid veteran presence in shooting guard Klay Thompson. The 35-year-old is one of the premier shooters in NBA history, and is a four-time NBA champion. Thompson averaged 14.0 points and 3.4 rebounds per game during the regular season. Additionally, Dallas can take solace in the fact that Sacramento owns the second-worst spread record at home, covering in just 37% of games at the Golden 1 Center. See which team to back at SportsLine.
Why the Kings can cover
The Kings went 3-0 against Dallas this season, with two of those wins coming by double digits. Sacramento is 4-2 against the spread in its last six games, and has home court advantage on its side. As for Dallas, it has covered just once over its last seven games and has lost its last six versus the spread to Western Conference teams.
The Kings have far more star power available leading into this matchup. Sacramento is led by Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, and DeMar DeRozan. Sabonis averages a double-double on 19.1 points and 13.9 rebounds per game, and will match up well with Davis. LaVine leads the team, averaging 22.4 points per game, while DeRozan is scoring 22.2 points to go with 4.4 assists per game. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make Kings vs. Mavs picks
SportsLine’s model has simulated Kings vs. Mavericks and is leaning Over on the point total, projecting 227 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in 60% of simulations. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s NBA picks.
So who wins Mavericks vs. Kings, and which side of the spread hits in 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Kings vs. Mavericks spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
