February 11 2025
Tuesday Morning Report
Today is the day we start our two storm event. There is a lot to cover and still some conflicting information. I have lots of maps to compare but also want to simplify the explanation. I hope my highlight bullet points help break it down.
In essence, the snow begins today from south to north. Much of Central Maryland to Southern PA will get the snow gradually during the afternoon. It will stick and be most impactful through tonight.
Part 1 should be over by Wednesday’s sunrise, but Part 2 will try to develop during the day.
Tomorrow brings another system that may try to develop during the day with a wintry mix, then trend warmer with rain.
This weekend we have another storm that may start with snow in PA, but mostly rain Saturday afternoon to Sunday.
Polar Air will follow Monday morning, AND yet another winter storm could reach us next week.
Winter Storm Alerts
Winter Storm Warning reaches through Washington, Annapolis, and as far north in Maryland as Howard County and BWI. Heavier snow and a mix of sleet tonight are expected.
I-70 and I-68 are roughly the point that that marks the Winter Weather Advisory with lower snow totals farther north.
Highlights (all the forecast maps are below)
- Snow will fall and spread across the region. It should arrive near and South/West of Washington by noon. Then, it will expand to reach our northern areas and into metro Philadelphia by 4 to 5 PM.
- Schools: NOT MY CALL! Stickage and road impact may be within the first 1 to 2 hours after the flakes arrive. So this may affect southern schools, while northern schools could gamble for a full day.
- TOTALS: A complication with the warm air advection could THUMP heavy snow rates (across South Central VA to Southern MD) at 1 to 2 inches per hour. This may possibly include thunder and even mix or change to sleet at night, which will affect snow totals.
- The heavier snow zone near and south of Washington to Annapolis will get heavy/wet snow. This will pack well but be heavier to shovel. Add in the regions with sleet, and if you have a medical condition, this is the time to find a neighborhood kid to shovel for you.
- This will all end within a few hours after midnight, so the Wednesday morning travel and schools will depend on how local road crews clear your area.
- Plane Delays? I DO NOT KNOW! I have been surprised by when flights take off in bad weather and also delayed when not o bad. Local airports, especially BWI, have great snow removal gear and plans. That is its sole purpose! They can fly and land in the snow, but removal could spread out the timing for take-offs and landings. That, in turn, can spread delays. There is also a factor of the other airports, flights, and weather issues themselves….
- In the 4-inch or less areas, this will be a typical snow consistency.
- The heavier snow zone near and south of Washington to Annapolis will get heavy/wet snow. This will pack well but be heavier to shovel. Add in the regions with sleet, and if you have a medical condition, this is the time to find a neighborhood kid to shovel for you.
My Final Call For Snowfall
I kept this the same from yesterday and only added the highlights for sleet mixing in.
CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore
TODAY February 11
Sunrise at 7:03 AM
Sunset at 5:40 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 26ºF
Record -6F in 1899
Normal High in Baltimore: 46ºF
Record 72ºF 1887
Baltimore Seasonal Snow
8.9”
DROUGHT UPDATE
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
Ending 2024 = -8.00″, since Jan 1 = -2.00
So we are down -10.00,” including last year!
Morning Temperatures
Morning Surface Weather
This complex Two-Part Storm System is taking form.
There is cold and dry air on the north side, which is why the northern edge of snow may only reach into Southern Pennsylvania.
Storm Forecast: Tuesday to Thursday
ECMWF Model
Closer Look
NAM 3Km Model Noon to 2 AM Wednesday
Snapshots
4 PM
10 PM
Sleet is likely to mix into Central Maryland. Temperatures will be above freezing in the heavy snow zone. This will make for very heavy and slushy snow, which will compact and affect final totals.
Model Comparison
I have mentioned the HRRR Model doing a better job over the weekend with the delayed icing. Here is a comparison. The HRRR Model plays the cold and dry air to the north up stronger.
2 PM
6 PM
10 PM
I will focus on Wednesday’s Weather Separately Below
Snow Total Potential
My Final Call For Snowfall
I decided to keep my second call from yesterday. I do believe most of this will hit the mark, but more than likely on the lower end. The heavy snow zone will mix with sleeting rain in Southern Maryland. If any place breaks 10 inches, it will be in central and Western Virginia.
NAM 3Km Forecast
This may be performing the best, showing the wintry mix across the same heavy snow zone.
ECMWF Model Forecast
This may be too high in the high snow zone… if they get more sleet and rain mixing in.
GFS Model Forecast
I believe this is too cold and too far south.
The high snow zone is too high.
National Weather Service Forecast Maps
WEDNESDAY WEATHER
This is another challenge as the second event will be developing during the day, and temperatures will trend warmer.
Morning Temperatures
Afternoon Temperatures
Radar Simulation 7 AM Wednesday 3 AM Thursday
If there is a mix of snow or sleet, it will trend warmer and turn to rain.
Model Comparison
7 AM
Noon
6 PM
Weekend Storm: Saturday to Monday Morning
This will be a warmer track. Snow may begin Saturday morning in PA, then turn to rain.
Rain will be heavy on Sunday, then the Polar Air will arrive at the end.
Monday Morning: Polar Air
The influence of the Polar Vortex will send deep arctic air into the US, Well Below Zero across the Northern Plains.
Teens reach Central Maryland.
20s and 30s into the Southeast US.
Next Week Storm
This is again violating my policy to not show storms beyond one week. However, in this very active pattern AND with arctic air, I want to help prepare that one more event could affect us with snow and ice.
This is a vague overview from the European Model.
Next Wed Feb 19 to Fri Feb 21
This will likely have adjustments as we get closer.
7 Day Forecast
Focus on the snow Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
Then Freezing Rain to Rain Thursday…
More will be in the pipeline as we watch the Polar Vortex’s influence in the week following this time window.
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La Nina Advisory January 2025
MY WINTER OUTLOOK
ALSO SEE
Recent Snow Reports
SNOW REPORTS THIS SEASON
Click on the maps for that full report.
January 19 Snow Report
January 11 Snow Report
January 6 Snow Report
Previous Snow
November 22 Snow Report
FITF Gear on Sale
In Case You Missed This
The Faith In The Flakes Dec 5 Origin Story
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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
