Two countries in contrasting form meet at the Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez on Wednesday (00:00) as Colombia host Paraguay in a Fifa World Cup 2026 qualifier. The visitors trailed Los Cafeteros by seven points after the first six rounds, but a seven-game unbeaten run, which has included four wins, has helped to hoist La Albirroja up to fifth, a point ahead of their next opponents who have lost their last three matches and four of their last five.
Below are my Colombia vs Paraguay predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this crucial clash in Barranquilla.
*odds correct at the time of publishing
Team News
Jhon Duran (Al-Nassr) could replace Jhon Cordoba (Krasnodar) as Colombia’s starting striker on Wednesday after suspension ruled him out of last Friday’s 2-1 defeat to Brazil. The 21-year-old could be joined in the line-up by Carlos Cuesta (Galatasaray) and Jorge Carrascal (Dynamo Moscow), who were brought on for Davinson Sanchez (Galatasaray) and Jhon Arias (Fluminense), respectively, in Brasilia.
Luis Diaz (Liverpool) struck Colombia’s only goal at the Estadio Nacional Mane Garrincha, and only Lionel Messi (six) has scored more in qualifying than the 28-year-old (five – level with Darwin Nunez, Raphinha, Enner Valencia and Miguelito).
- Colombia have lost four of their last five qualifiers
- Paraguay are unbeaten in their last seven
- 10/14 Paraguay qualifiers have gone under 1.5 goals
Team News
Paraguay head coach Gustavo Alfaro may be tempted to stick with a winning formula on Wednesday, although it wasn’t until the 60th minute, after Matias Galarza (Talleres Cordoba) was thrown on at half-time for Damian Bobadilla (Sao Paulo), that Omar Alderete (Getafe) scored the winning goal against Chile (1-0).
Alderete, alongside Fabian Balbuena (Dinamo Moscow), Junior Alonso (Atletico Mineiro), Miguel Almiron (Atlanta United) and Julio Enciso (Brighton & Hove Albion, on loan at Ipswich Town), should be confident of staying in the starting XI.
Diego Gomez (Brighton) served a suspension last week and is likely to return in midfield, probably at the expense of Bobadilla.
Colombia are on a poor run but Paraguay are winless on their travels this campaign, losing their first three away qualifiers and drawing their last four. Los Cafeteros have won four of their six home games and are therefore installed as 4/9 favourites on Wednesday, implying a win probability of 69.2%, while the visitors are 6/1, or a 14.3% chance, to claim maximum points and exact revenge for their 1-0 defeat in Asuncion in November 2023.
The draw is priced at 11/4, both teams to score at 11/8, and over 2.5 total goals at 6/5.
Diaz fronts the anytime goalscorer market ahead of Duran and Cordoba (both 13/8), with Isidro Pitta (4/1) first up for La Albirroja, followed by Enciso (9/2).
Total Goals – Under 1.5 @ 7/4
Three of Paraguay’s last four games have produced three or more goals and it’s the same statistics for Colombia, but that isn’t enough to dissuade me from backing the under 1.5 line on Wednesday.
Of the three Paraguay matches that went over 2.5 goals, two were at home, and the other was away to Bolivia; their previous nine qualifiers all ended 0-0 or 1-0.
Colombia, meanwhile, have seen 46.2% (six) of their 13 games finish with either one goal or no goals, including their 1-0 win over Paraguay in November 2023.
Paraguay have scored twice and conceded four times on their travels, which means their away games are averaging one goal, and having kept three clean sheets already ‘on the road’, they will head to Barranquilla looking to frustrate another opponent. A draw would be a positive outcome for La Albirroja, and thus, they don’t need to take the game to their hosts, who will be mindful of losing a fourth match in a row.
The pressure is on Los Cafeteros to triumph on Wednesday, but a point would be a small step in the right direction and avoiding defeat will be the number one objective, so I don’t see many goals in this game.
You can back Colombia to win to nil at 21/20, but under 1.5 total goals at 7/4 looks to be where the real value lies. Save
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Corners Over/Under 8.5 – Under 8.5 @ 11/10
Eight of Colombia’s 13 qualifiers so far, including their last four, have produced eight or fewer corners, and there were only six shared equally when they last met Paraguay in June at the 2024 Copa America. The reverse fixture in World Cup 2026 qualifying only saw one more taken as Paraguay won the corner count 4-3 in November 2023.
La Albirroja, meanwhile, have seen under 8.5 total corners land in seven of their 13 qualifiers and four of their last five away from home.
I’m not backing much goalmouth action on Wednesday and that should also help to keep the corner count down, so under 8.5 at over EVS looks good here.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
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