CNN —
Canada’s Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, is on course to win the country’s federal election, Canadian media projects, following a campaign overshadowed by provocations and tariffs from US President Donald Trump.
CNN affiliates CTV and CBC both projected that the Liberals would win enough seats to form a fourth consecutive government.
With votes still being counted, CBC News said it is too soon to say whether it will be a minority or majority government – a party needs 172 seats to form a majority.
Former central banker Carney has led a wave of anti-Trump sentiment since winning his party’s leadership contest in a landslide after former prime minister Justin Trudeau stepped down last month. He has spearheaded Canada’s opposition to the US president’s threats to annex the country as “the 51st state” and made the country’s defense a central part of his platform.
“I reject any attempts to weaken Canada, to wear us down, to break us so that America can own us,” Carney told reporters in late March. “We are masters in our own home.”
The Conservative opposition, led by longtime parliamentarian Pierre Poilievre, had been the favorite to win when Trudeau announced his resignation in January in the wake of dire polls, a serious cost of living crisis and an internal revolt in his cabinet. But Trump’s steep tariffs on Canada and threats to its sovereignty dramatically transformed the race.
Polls tightened significantly in the last week of the campaign, with Poilievre convincing some voters that Carney could not represent the change that many Canadians said they were looking for in dozens of polls.
Carney had never held political office before becoming prime minister. His decades in finance saw him steering governments through major global crises and periods of upheaval, including shepherding Canada’s economy through the 2008 financial crisis. As governor of the Bank of England, he helped the United Kingdom navigate Brexit – which he said mirrors what could happen to the US in the face of tariffs.
The idea that Canada needs to forge its own path outside of US influence has been central to Carney’s messaging since he took office.
Carney pitched himself throughout the campaign as an experienced professional from the political center who can steward Canada’s economy through a period of profound turbulence.
“I understand how the world works,” Carney told podcaster Nate Erskine-Smith in October. “I know people who run some of the world’s largest companies and understand how they work. I know how financial institutions work. I know how markets work … I’m trying to apply that to the benefit of Canada.”
Trump’s decision to levy a 25% duty on Canadian steel and aluminum, cars and car parts, and threats to tariff pharmaceuticals and lumber have shaken Canadian businesses. It’s a reality Carney has not sugarcoated, warning of “tough days ahead” with pressure on Canadian employment.
But the prime minister has pledged to “build things in this country again” to make Canada less reliant on the US: new homes, new factories, and new sources of “clean and conventional energy.”
“My solemn promise is to stand up for Canadian workers, to stand up for Canadian businesses,” Carney said in March. “We will stand up for our history, our values and our sovereignty.”
Carney has not ruled out continued talks with Trump, but he has also been moving to deepen ties with more “reliable” allies. In an unusual move, his first prime ministerial trip abroad was to Europe, where he spoke to French and British officials about deepening security, military and economic ties.
Many Canadians see Carney as someone well-placed to navigate a trade war with a long-standing ally, experts say.
“In a crisis it’s important to come together and it’s essential to act with purpose and with force. And that’s what we will do,” Carney said earlier this month as he positioned himself as the leader to take on Trump.
This is a developing story and will be updated.
