Canada election: Liberals projected to win 4th term, but unclear if minority or majority

CBC News is projecting the Liberals will form their fourth consecutive government. Follow live coverage here as the results come in with Rosemary Barton, Adrienne Arsenault, Ian Hanomansing, David Cochrane and Catherine Cullen, and featuring reporters across the country.

  • The Liberals are projected to win a fourth consecutive government — a rarity in Canadian politics.
  • It is too soon to say whether it will be a minority or majority, but it’s a remarkable win given the party was tanking in the polls just months ago.
  • NDP support is collapsing nationwide, while the Greens’ co-leader is projected to lose his own riding.
  • A party needs to win 172 seats to form a majority government.
  • You can find the riding-by-riding count at cbc.ca/results.
  • CBC News is live now with special coverage.

Liberals will form next government, CBC News projects

Carney projected to win Nepean riding in Ottawa

‘Just look at the sheer girth’ of the ballot for Poilievre’s riding

Majority vs. minority governments: What’s the difference?

Elizabeth May projected to win Saanich – Gulf Islands in B.C.

Freeland projected to win University-Rosedale in Toronto

How does the CBC News Decision Desk call a winner?

  • 10 minutes agoBenjamin Lopez Steven
  • People inside NDP election headquarters, including party staffers, have begun to gather around the podium to hear Singh speak.
  • His riding of Burnaby Central has not been called yet, but he continues to trail by thousands of votes to Liberal candidate Wade Chang.
  • 11 minutes agoHolly Cabrera
  • Blanchet is expected to greet supporters at Le National theatre in Montreal in a few minutes.
  • The Bloc Québécois leader is projected to be re-elected in the riding of Beloeil-Chambly.
  • He’ll head onstage later tonight, but what time he’ll start his speech isn’t clear.
  • Bloc supporters are clinging to the prospect of Liberals forming a minority government so the party can hold the balance of power.
  • 30 minutes agoMarina von Stackelberg
  • An NDP supporter in Burnaby, B.C., tonight. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press)
  • It appears the New Democrats’ fears may be playing out on election night with many of their incumbent seats at serious risk — including Jagmeet Singh’s.
  • One thing we heard on the campaign trail from the party and supporters was that some Canadians who would have voted NDP were scared of Trump and the idea of a Poilievre government, so they were choosing Carney’s Liberals.
  • NDP incumbent Heather McPherson, projected to win Edmonton Strathcona, echoed that sentiment. “New Democrats do better when people are voting out of a sense of hope and optimism,” she told my colleague Sam Samson.
  • The results seem to be a worst case scenario for the New Democrats: vote splitting that has them losing some of their ridings to the Liberals, others to the Conservatives.
  • The NDP clearly saw this as a potential risk. About a week ago in BC the party started printing and handing out signs that said, “BC votes NDP to stop Conservatives” to try to hammer home the message.
  • 32 minutes agoVerity Stevenson
  • With tight races in Ontario and the potential for the Liberals to lose as many as 10 seats in the province, David Lametti, a former cabinet minister and longtime friend of Carney’s, acknowledged “there’s division out there.”
  • Speaking to my colleague Ashley Burke from the Liberal Party headquarters in Ottawa, Lametti declined to say whether he believed Carney’s government could be a minority in Parliament, despite earlier polling in the campaign suggesting it could be a majority.
  • “Let’s see what happens. There are a lot of tight races left in Ontario and B.C.,” Lametti said. “We need to work as a government and Prime Minister Carney’s going to have to work … to be a rassembleur, to bring people together.”
  • Lametti said the government will also have to work amid “a lot of misinformation” circulating online.
  • 38 minutes agoHaydn Watters
  • Leonardo Lacroix is a volunteer for Ya’ara Saks’s campaign in York Centre. (Haydn Watters/CBC)
  • I’m a reporter with CBC Toronto.
  • Right now, I’m keeping an eye on Conservatives creeping into what has traditionally been the Liberal fortress of Toronto.
  • Conservative Roman Baber is leading in York Centre, where Liberal cabinet minister Ya’ara Saks was the incumbent.
  • Not many people wanted to talk to me at Saks’s party headquarters tonight.
  • Volunteer Leonardo Lacroix was working as a scrutineer this evening and told me the riding was “divided.” Although Saks may lose, he sees a potential minority government as a win.
  • “If you look at what the Liberal Party was like three months ago, it was a mess. We would have never imagined this was the result we were going to have.”
  • 40 minutes agoVerity Stevenson
  • Liberal Chrystia Freeland has been projected to win a seat in Parliament in Ontario’s University-Rosedale riding.
  • Freeland, whose resignation in December prompted Trudeau to step down as prime minister, part of the reversal of her party’s fortunes, is projected to win her University-Rosedale seat.
  • “I did not have a crystal ball on that morning” of her resignation Dec. 16, Freeland told Rosemary Barton. “But I knew we were headed in the wrong direction and I had to do something about it.”
  • Freeland said she’s “delighted” by the Liberals’ success in this election.
  • “People had totally written us off and right now you are talking about what the strength of our government will be,” she said with supporters waving party pamphlets behind her.
  • Freeland gave Carney “kudos” and said she believes he is “totally up to the job.” She called Carney a remarkable campaigner amid a “palpable wave of patriotism” that he will now have to harness to unite the country — which she said she’s confident he can do.
  • 42 minutes agoJenna Benchetrit
  • CBC News projects Green Party co-Leader Elizabeth May will win re-election in her riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands. May says she has congratulated Mark Carney on his result in the election as CBC News projects the Liberals will form the next government.
  • CBC’s Decision Desk is projecting that Green Party co-Leader Elizabeth May will continue to represent B.C.’s Saanich-Gulf Islands in the House of Commons.
  • In her victory speech, May says she spoke to Carney who congratulated her for winning her riding.
  • Just a short while ago, it was projected that her co-Leader Jonathan Pedneault would lose his race in Montreal’s Outremont riding.
  • May says co-leader Jonathan Pedneault’s chances were hurt after he wasn’t able to perform in the leader’s debates in Quebec. She also criticized the media for promoting a two-party race and saying she could lose her riding.
  • May was first elected to parliament in 2011, and served as Green Party leader from 2008 to 2019 before returning to the role in 2022.
  • 45 minutes agoLucas Powers
  • Ferreri during Question Period in Ottawa on Nov. 24, 2022. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)
  • Conservative incumbent Michelle Ferreri is projected to lose in the Ontario riding of Peterborough. The CBC Decision Desk projects Liberal Emma Harrison will be heading to Ottawa as the riding’s MP.
  • Ferrari was a vocal government critic on social media and drew strong reactions from across the political spectrum.
  • 49 minutes agoJenna Benchetrit
  • Fraser and Carney in Fraser’s Nova Scotia riding of Central Nova on March 25. (Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press)
  • Liberal MP and former cabinet minister Sean Fraser is projected to win his seat in Nova Scotia’s Central Nova — the fourth time he’s won the riding.
  • CBC’s Decision Desk is projecting that the Liberal incumbent has edged out Conservative candidate Brycen Jenkins in a nail-biter race.
  • Poilievre campaigned in the area just a few days ago, praising Jenkins and slamming Fraser’s record as a member of former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s cabinet.
  • Fraser was immigration minister from 2021-23, and housing minister until December, at which point he announced he wouldn’t seek re-election after winning his riding three times.
  • But he reversed that decision a few months later when Carney, newly minted as Liberal leader, called him to reconsider.
  • 53 minutes agoBrady Strachan
  • Leanne McCulloch recently became a Canadian citizen and voted for the first time in this federal election. (Jay Bertignolli/CBC)
  • One thing we saw today at a polling station in Kelowna, B.C., is a number of people voting for the first time in a federal election.
  • We spoke to Leanne McCulloch, who recently became a Canadian citizen. Originally from Scotland, McCulloch said she felt pride in coming and casting her ballot today.
  • The Elections Canada supervisor at the polling station told us she has seen more first-time voters this election than in any other federal election she has worked during the past two decades.

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