Can Florida basketball take down No. 1? Scouting report, prediction for UF vs Tennessee

After a disappointing loss at No. 7 Kentucky in its SEC opener, No. 8 Florida basketball gets a chance for redemption when its plays No. 1 Tennessee on Tuesday night in its SEC home opener at the O’Connell Center (7 p.m., ESPN2).

The Florida Gators (13-1, 0-1 SEC) are hosting a No. 1 team for the first time since falling 72-61 to No. 1 Baylor on Jan. 25, 2020 in the SEC-Big12 Challenge. Florida is 2-17 all-time against No. 1 ranked teams.

“This is probably as difficult as it gets.” Florida basketball coach Todd Golden said of UF’s start to conference play. “But listen, it’s part of the challenge and just the opportunity of playing in this league.”

Tennessee (14-0, 1-0 SEC) reloaded effectively in the transfer portal after losing SEC Player of the Year Dalton Knecht to the NBA Draft. The Vols have reached the Sweet 16 twice and Elite Eight once in 10 seasons under head coach Rick Barnes.

“If we can get this thing done, it gives us really good momentum throughout the rest of the conference slate, and gives us a really good chance to be competitive in the top fourth of the league,” Golden said.

Here are three storylines to watch for UF’s matchup against the Vols:

Can Florida basketball match Tennessee’s physicality?

The Vols remain a rugged, defensive squad under Barnes, ranking first in the nation in KenPom in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and third in the SEC in rebounding margin (plus-10.4).

Florida, which leads the SEC in rebounding margin at plus-12.4, is up for the physical challenge the Vols will present on both ends of the floor.

Charlotte transfer Igor Milicic has been Tennessee’s top rebounder at 8.9 per game. Florida’s frontcourt duo of sophomore forward Alex Condon (7.7 rpg) and sophomore center Rueben Chinyelu (6.8 rpg) have excelled on the boards so far this season. The 6-foot-10, 260-pound Chinyelu was a factor inside in his SEC debut against Kentucky with 10 points, seven rebounds and two blocks.

“We’ve gotta be physical,” Golden said. “We’ve got to attack, and we’ve got to get second chances. They run a lot of floppy action, they run off a lot of pin downs, like, we can’t allow ourselves to get screened, we’ve got to find a way to get through and take away those curls and take away those 3s.”

How will Florida basketball deal with the Tennesse backcourt tandem of Chaz Lanier and Zakai Zeigler?

The 6-foot-5 Lanier, a transfer from North Florida, scored 29 points in his SEC debut for the Vols against Arkansas to earn SEC co-player of the week honors. Zeigler, at just 5-foot-9, remains a pest, averaging 11.7 points per game while leading the SEC in assists (8.0) and ranking tied for 10th in the league in steals (1.9 spg).

Lanier (20.4 ppg) is effective both driving to the rim and shooting from 3-point range (46.7%). That could present problems for a UF defense that allowed UK to shoot 57.8% from the floor and 48.3% from 3-point range (14-29) in its SEC opener.

“Their perimeter is really hard to guard, with Zeigler ― he’s one of the best point guards in America, obviously ― and Lanier has done a great job of coming in and assuming that role as a high-usage, efficient scorer for them.”

Can Florida basketball point guard Walter Clayton Jr. bounce back from an up-and-down performance against Kentucky?

Clayton matched a career-high with 33 points and sank six 3-pointers against Kentucky but also turned the ball over at times and missed four free throws, which played a role in UF coming up short against the Wildcats.

The 6-foot-2 Clayton is averaging 18.1 points and 3.9 assists but has been shaky with the basketball at times this season, positing an assist-to-turnover ratio of 54-31 on the season.

“Just got to be better all-around I guess,” Clayton said. “I’d rather have 20 (points) with a win, or two with a win, you know what I’m saying. So it’s definitely frustrating, but I think we’ll be alright. We just got to bounce back.”

Clayton has made five or more 3-pointers in four of his last eight games and is averaging 3.1 3-pointers per game on the season.

Prediction

Florida 74, Tennessee 66: The Gators will bounce back from the Kentucky loss with a better defensive effort at home to pick up their first-ever win against a No. 1 team in the regular season. The duo of Clayton and Martin will again lead the way offensively, and sophomore forward Alex Condon will provide both toughness and scoring inside to help match Tennessee’s physicality.

Kevin Brockway is The Gainesville Sun’s Florida beat writer. Contact him at [email protected]. Follow him on X @KevinBrockwayG1

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