Michigan State held serve yesterday with a quarterfinal win over Oregon. Now they will face #18 AP/#14 Coaches Poll Wisconsin with a trip to Sunday’s final on the line. Wisconsin is coming off a blowout win over UCLA. The Badgers sunk 19 three-pointers (on 32 attempts) in that game, tying a Big Ten Tournament Record. While the final score was 86-70, that is just because UCLA scored 11 points to close out the game in the final three minutes; the score was 86-59 before that end-of-game run.
This was no aberration either by Wisconsin. The Badgers tied for the Big Ten lead this year making 9.8 triples per game, good for 31st in the country. Of their seven players who averaged over 15 minutes per game, all of them shot the deep ball above a 28% clip, and five of those guys shot at least 35%. Their leading scorer, John Tonje, who averages 18.9 PPG this year, has made 70 triples so far this season on 38% from deep. In the UCLA game, Tonje went a perfect 6-6. Kamari McGee, who shoots the deep ball at a blistering 48% rate and averages 6.6 PPG, was 3-3 against the Bruins.
Basically, Wisconsin is dangerous from range. The good news for us in this matchup is that MSU is 3rd nationally in defending the triple, allowing opponents to make only 28% of their attempts; the top team allows 27.7%, so basically the same thing. Wisconsin is also the only B1G team who shoots FTs better than MSU, leading in that department 83.4% to 78.9. The Spartans had an atrocious day at the line against Oregon, so hopefully they can average things out on Saturday with a near-perfect performance.
In other statistical categories, MSU is 2nd in the conference in rebounding and assists per game and tops in blocks. The Badgers are middle of the pack in those categories.
The Spartans and Badgers played each other once this season, meeting two weeks ago in East Lansing. MSU prevailed 71-62 in a game they trailed by a basket at halftime before their trademark second half domination.
Shoutout to Brian for getting closest to the actual score yesterday with his prediction of 79-67. Today, the TOC staff is making the following predictions.
Mike: 81-79 MSU
Steve: 73-68 MSU
Brian: 75-71 MSU
O: 77-70 MSU
The Spartans are favored by 2.5 points. The over/under is 144.5. What do you think will happen? Make your score predictions in the comments.
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Across the bracket, the other semifinal pits Maryland and um.
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