Astros vs. Twins odds, line, score prediction, start time: 2025 MLB picks, April 3 best bets from proven model

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The Houston Astros (2-4) and Minnesota Twins (2-4) begin a three-game series, spread over four days, on Thursday afternoon. It is the Twins’ home opener of the 2025 MLB season, as well as Houston’s first time on the road. Hunter Brown (0-1, 3.00 ERA) takes the ball for the Astros after posting 11 wins in back-to-back seasons, while Joe Ryan (0-0, 1.80) totes the rubber for the Twins, coming off a 7-7 season. Minnesota went 4-2 versus Houston in 2024.

First pitch from Target Field in Minneapolis is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Minnesota is a -140 favorite on the money line (risk $140 to win $100) in the latest Twins vs. Astros odds from SportsLine consensus. Houston is a +118 underdog, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 7. Before making any Astros vs. Twins picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 2 of the 2025 MLB season on a 34-18 roll on top-rated run-line betting picks (+729). Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Twins vs. Astros and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Astros vs. Twins:

Twins vs. Astros money line: Minnesota -140, Houston +118 at Caesars Sportsbook
Twins vs. Astros over/under: 7 runs
Twins vs. Astros run line: Minnesota -1.5 (+162)
HOU: The Astros have lost four straight on the run line
MIN: The Over is 4-1-1 for the Twins this season
Twins vs. Astros picks: See picks at SportsLine
Twins vs. Astros streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why the Astros can cover

After beginning the year 1 for 16 (.063), three-time All-Star Yordan Alvarez showed some life on Wednesday with a pair of hits and a pair of RBI, and he should be able to build off that showing on Thursday. That’s because Alvarez has hammered Ryan to the tune of a 1.512 OPS across 12 at-bats. Three of his four hits off Ryan have been home runs, and few batters have been as productive as Alvarez over the last few years. He ranks third in OPS since the 2022 season, only behind the incomparable duo of Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani.

Unlike Alvarez, Jose Altuve has swung a hot bat ever since Opening Day. He’s had at least one hit in all six games this season, with multiple hits in three of those outings. The longtime second baseman has deftly adjusted to his new role in left field, and it has clearly had no effect on his hitting as his .391 average is the sixth-best in the American League. Additionally, while both teams have struggled out of the gate, Houston has been more competitive as the Twins -12 run differential is the second-worst in the AL. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why the Twins can cover

Despite a quality start in his first outing, Brown is just the pitcher that the Twins want to see on the mound. Current Minnesota batters are hitting .296 off the righty, and arguably Brown’s worst start of the 2024 season came against the Twins. Also in a road contest last July, the Twins battered Brown for 12 hits – the most he allowed all year – and seven earned runs. The .286 batting average that Brown has allowed at Target Field over his career is his third-highest at any ballpark he’s made at least two starts at.

While Alvarez has gotten the better of Ryan, the pitcher gets a break in that he’ll take the mound in a 3:10 p.m. local start. Ryan is discernibly better in day games, where the sunlight and shadows can play tricks on those in the batter’s box. Ryan’s career ERA is nearly a full run lower in day games (3.36) than in night games (4.30). The 28-year-old is also coming off a solid first outing in which he allowed 1 ER over 5 IP, while striking out five and issuing no walks. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Astros vs. Twins picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 9.2 combined runs, and it says one side of the money line has all the value. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s MLB picks.

So who wins Twins vs. Astros, and which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.