A Tale of Two Model Rocket Companies: SpaceX and Estes

SpaceX’s innovative Starship system was already the biggest and most powerful the world has ever seen—and after six exciting test flights, the version that rocketed into the skies above South Texas yesterday on the seventh test flight was even taller and more sophisticated than earlier editions. SpaceX’s team likes to promote these experimental launches with the phrase “excitement guaranteed,” in a nod to the always possible risk of failure, even as the company has racked up numerous successful flights.

That’s pretty much what happened above the evening skies of the Caribbean Thursday night, as the upper stage of the Starship rocket exploded into a shower of glowing sparks, even as the giant first stage booster was caught, like a super high tech magic trick, back on its own launch tower.

The seventh test flight of the rocket, which is intended to be fully reusable and able to carry huge satellite payloads into orbit—eventually as much as 200 tons, more than 20 times what the company’s famous Falcon 9 rocket can currently lift— was designed to test various aspects of the new rocket. The main focus was on a new version of the “Ship” upper stage, which sported a new aerodynamic design, different heat shield and more. Two main goals were the most important part of the test flight. One was returning the giant 230-foot tall “Booster” first stage back to the launch pad, the second was to get the second stage into space where it would eject dummy next-generation Starlink satellites into space, as a test of future satellite deployment systems. 

The first part of the plan succeeded several minutes after launch when the first stage blasted its way back and was caught by the giant metal arms of the launch tower, in a system SpaceX dubs Mechazilla. This is a critical part of the mission, since it proves SpaceX’s design for rapid reuse of Starship is feasible.

But as the upper stage flew on its own into space, somewhere near the Turks and Caicos islands the vehicle experienced what SpaceX’s X post called a “rapid unscheduled disassembly during its ascent burn.” Essentially the vehicle blew up, resulting in bright debris trailing through the night sky, triggering the FAA to reroute some air traffic in the area.

SpaceX, carefully controlling the narrative, noted that its teams will “continue to review data from today’s flight test to better understand [the] root cause,” adding that “with a test like this, success comes from what we learn, and today’s flight will help us improve Starship’s reliability.” SpaceX rival Blue Origin suffered a similar failure during its test flight of the giant New Glenn system just a day before, when the first stage of that rocket exploded high in the atmosphere before it could attempt to land on a barge in the Atlantic ocean. Rocket science is famously hard, especially when it comes to two innovative, industry-upending vehicles like these two.

Meanwhile a totally different rocket company finds itself in the news for more political reasons. Colorado Public Radio news recently reported on the business plans of Estes, a small, closely held private firm that makes small rocket engines and rocket systems. How small? Small enough to fit in a backpack: Estes is a storied company dating back to the 1950s, known for its model rockets for hobbyists. 

CPR reports that the tiny firm, which has estimated annual revenues around $5.4 million, is worried about how possible trade tariffs levied by the incoming Trump administration could harm its business. The President-elect has said import tariffs will be a cornerstone policy, and has even proposed a new “External Revenue Service” to collect the fees from foreign firms.

Though no exact details of tariffs are known yet, CPR notes that “some goods from China are already subject to high import taxes, a policy put in place by the first Trump administration that President Joe Biden kept in place.” So Estes is stockpiling a lot of critical parts that it currently imports from China—pieces like plastic nosecones, fins and parachutes.

Heidi Muckenthaler, the company’s vice president and general manager, said “We’re really ramping up to bring in that year [of] supply as a backup,” but wondered “What do we do next year? We got one year planned.” She also worried about other smaller firms with less warehousing available, noting she “can’t imagine some of these companies that run in small warehouses, how they’re going to manage to do this.”

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