There has been plenty of exciting football already this weekend but the Sunday Night matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens is the most highly anticipated game of the weekend. The top two MVP candidates will square off and fight for the chance to take on Patrick Mahomes for the AFC crown.
Baltimore added Derrick Henry in the offseason, and he has been exactly what the organization hoped for. His hard-nosed rushing style has been an excellent complement to Lamar Jackson, who has had a statistically better season than either of the years he won MVP. In addition, the Ravens’ defense has had an impressive turnaround down the home stretch of the season, and they will need this to continue against this Bills team.
Josh Allen threw a career-low six interceptions this season and helped lead the Bills to a 13-4 record in the regular season. They put forth one of the most convincing performances of the playoffs last week defeating the Denver Broncos 31-7. Baltimore will provide a much more difficult challenge and they will need to bring their best effort on both sides of the ball in this matchup. Both these teams deserve to be viewed as top five teams in the NFL, but their paths must cross at this point in the playoffs.
The Ravens enter this game as 1.5-point favorites and -118 on the Moneyline. The Bills are -102 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 51.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the primetime playoff thriller.
It is expected to be about 15 degrees up in Buffalo around kick-off, which sounds like Derrick Henry weather. The power running back is not afraid to run through or over you and will have plenty of opportunities against Buffalo. Henry logged 325 carries for 1,921 yards and tied for an NFL-best 16 rushing touchdowns during the regular season.
Henry rushed for over 96.5 yards in nine games in the regular season and added 186 yards on the ground last week in his Ravens playoff debut. He also added 199 yards on the ground when these two teams faced off in the regular season—his highest rushing total on the year. While Buffalo is likely to stack the box with this being the largest threat in this matchup, Henry has seen an average of 24.3 carries across the past four weeks.
It is essential to stop Henry at the line of scrimmage if the Bills defense is to have any sort of shot. The former Titans star is averaging 24.3 yards per rush attempt when he is not contacted within the first five yards of the line of scrimmage. Buffalo allows runs in which they do not contact the runner within the first five yards at the fifth-highest rate. There were just three runs during the Week 5 matchup in which Henry was not contacted within the first five yards and this accounted for 150 of his 199 rushing yards. Expect the star running back to be the foundation of this Ravens offense, especially with the cold weather in mind. He is sure to break free for at least one significant game-changing run and will have a healthy dose of opportunities to ensure he records over 96.5 rushing yards.
With the Bills likely to stack the box and limit the level of opportunity for Henry, expect this to open the door for some big plays in the passing game. During the regular season, Jackson logged his longest completion of over 35.5 passing yards in 13 of the 17 games.
In addition, the Bills defense has been susceptible to the pass. They finished the regular season ranked 24th in passing yards allowed, 24th in passing touchdowns conceded, and 17th in net yards per pass attempt. The regular season matchup between these two teams was one of the few games in which Jackson did not reach this number with his longest completion being 26 passing yards. However, Derrick Henry breaking free for an 87-yard rushing touchdown and running for 8.3 yards per carry eliminated the need for big plays in the passing game.
While it should be noted that top wide receiver Zay Flowers is doubtful for the matchup, Baltimore has a widespread passing approach. Five different players are averaging more than 10 receiving yards per target with Rashod Bateman being the guy I particularly have my eyes on. Expect Jackson to take a few chances and look to punish the Bills whenever they are too focused on stopping the run. He has been a statistically better passer this season than either of his MVP seasons and the Bills defense has proven vulnerable at times. Look for a wide receiver to break free at least once and for Jackson to punish the opponents for a 37+ yard gain.
While Derrick Henry will rightfully steal the spotlight for running back production, James Cook is closer in talent that he sometimes gets recognized for. The 25-year-old produced his second consecutive 1,000+ yard rushing season and was tied with Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs for an NFL-best 16 rushing touchdowns. He then built off this to kick off the playoffs carrying the ball 23 times for 120 yards and a touchdown last week.
Baltimore has been strong in stopping the run this year, allowing the fewest overall rushing yards on the season. This is a bit distorted with the Ravens holding a lead for a great deal of the season as there have been the second-fewest rushing attempts against them. In contrast, they rank 30th in passing attempts allowed and have given up the second-most passing yards during the regular season.
Expect a more balanced approach from the Bills’ offensive attack and for James Cook to see a healthy dose of carries. He has averaged 63.1 rushing yards per game this season, seeing 12.9 carries per game, and recorded over 55.5 rushing yards in eight of the 17 regular season games. The playoff opener was his highest rushing yardage output of the season and look for Cook to remain active in the Bills’ offense today and rush for at least 56 yards on the ground.
Located in the player specials section on DraftKings Sportsbook, I like the +200 odds of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen to combine for at least six passing and rushing touchdowns. This MVP showdown feels only right if the star quarterbacks are at the forefront of the scoring effort and both are plenty capable of delivering for their respective teams.
During the regular season, Jackson threw for 41 touchdowns through the air and added four rushing touchdowns with his legs. Allen has been at the epicenter of the Bills production himself and finished the regular season with 28 passing touchdowns and 12 with his legs.
The first matchup between these two teams marked the only game, outside of the last week of the season in which he rested, that Allen did not score a touchdown. Expect him to be hungry for a better performance. Jackson tallied three touchdowns in the first matchup between these two teams and managed at least one score in every game this season.
It feels only right if these teams elect to decide their season on the back of their star quarterbacks and expect them to have plenty of opportunities to make plays. The ability with each of the quarterback’s legs makes this more appealing and creates more ways to score around the goal line. While both running backs are among the best touchdown vultures in the league, and were tied for the most rushing touchdowns in the regular season, the over/under of 51.5 indicates high levels of scoring are expected. Count on Jackson and Allen to be at the epicenter of it and capitalize on the +200 odds.
