NBA superstars win championships. The past nine Finals MVPs, and 22 of 25 Finals MVPs this century, were All-Stars that same season. The three Finals MVPs who weren’t? Andre Iguodala in 2015, Kawhi Leonard in 2014 and Chauncey Billups in 2004, who were each All-Stars at other points in their careers.
But the league’s best players need plenty to win a title. To help preview the next couple of months of playoff basketball, let’s examine who might swing the fortunes of every team with at least a 25% chance of winning a series, according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index.
Ranging from backup guards to 3-and-D wings to imposing 7-footers, these players aren’t the No. 1 option of their respective teams — but a make-or-break performance under the playoff spotlight could swing their teams’ fortunes.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Ty Jerome
Out of 333 players who attempted at least 200 shots this season, no player outperformed their expected effective field goal percentage (eFG%) better than Jerome, per GeniusIQ tracking.
For context, the metric, which is based on factors such as shot location and defender distance, features two future first-ballot Hall of Famers in second and third: Kevin Durant and Nikola Jokic.
Guard ComboOff. RatingPercentileMitchell, Garland123.495thMitchell, Jerome123.194thGarland, Jerome124.097th
Jerome, an unheralded guard who played just two games last season, more than doubled his previous career high in points. He has been sensational off the bench in Cleveland, making 44% of his 3-pointers and keeping the Cavaliers’ offense afloat whenever he has been subbed in for All-Stars Donovan Mitchell or Darius Garland.
Questions linger about Jerome’s playoff potential. Can he sustain such hot shooting and hold up on defense when opposing teams target him with screens? Will he get much playing time?
Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson played Mitchell and Garland just 31 minutes per game in the regular season but will presumably boost their workloads in the postseason, which would leave less time for Jerome to shine.
Boston Celtics: Jrue Holiday
Holiday missed four consecutive games, beginning at the end of February, because of a pinkie injury. At the time, Holiday had made just 34% of his 3-point attempts on the season. But the time off helped Holiday reset, and he shot 39% from distance after his return to the court.
That’s a big deal for the Celtics, as their opponents tend to leave Holiday open to focus on his more dangerous teammates. Holiday’s 3-pointers this season came with an average of 7.3 feet of separation from the closest defender, per GeniusIQ tracking. Al Horford (8.2 feet) is the only other Celtics shooter who commands less defensive respect on the perimeter.
Holiday’s backcourt partnership with Derrick White has been an invaluable component of Boston’s dominance the past two seasons, particularly on defense. But he needs to hold his own on offense, too, and make opponents pay for leaving him open — just like he did last postseason, when he nailed 40% of his 3s en route to a title.
New York Knicks: Mitchell Robinson
After having ankle surgery in May, Robinson didn’t debut this season until Feb. 28, and he reached 20 minutes in only three games. On the court, though, he was as productive as ever, averaging 11 points, 13 rebounds, 2.2 blocks and 2.0 steals per 36 minutes while shooting 66% from the field. And Robinson ranked second among all rotation players in offensive rebounding rate, behind only Rockets big man Steven Adams.
What he offers most is another look for a team that doesn’t deviate much. The Knicks’ starting five played 940 total minutes this season — 32% more than any other five-man lineup in the league — but that group hasn’t defeated any of the best teams. (New York went 0-10 this season against Boston, Cleveland and Oklahoma City.)
So, if Plan A isn’t working, then the Knicks need a Plan B to challenge the Celtics, whom they’ll likely face in the second round. Maybe that’s a center who can crash the offensive boards, or a double-big lineup with Robinson and Karl-Anthony Towns. The two centers have shared the court for just 47 total minutes, but Towns has played well next to a rim-protecting center: Rudy Gobert in Minnesota.
Indiana Pacers: Aaron Nesmith
Why did the Pacers struggle so much to start this season? On New Year’s Day, they were eighth in the East at 16-18, which represented a disappointing falloff for last season’s surprise Eastern Conference finalists.
The answer might be that Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard missed most of the season to that point, depriving the Pacers of two of their best perimeter players. But then Nembhard returned and Nesmith followed him in mid-January, and the Pacers didn’t look back. After Jan. 1, they went 34-14 with the sixth-best net rating in the league.
Nesmith offers a huge boost on both ends, as he makes 43% of his 3-pointers and is the Pacers’ best option to guard many elite wings. It’s no wonder that he has the team’s second-largest on/off differential, behind only Pascal Siakam: Indiana outscored opponents by 8.5 points per 100 possessions with Nesmith on the floor and was outscored by 0.7 points per 100 without him.
Milwaukee Bucks: Kyle Kuzma
The Bucks took a huge risk when they traded former champion Khris Middleton for Kuzma, who was suffering through a dreadful season in Washington. The hope was that Kuzma would raise his play in a more competitive situation.
But moving from the East’s worst team to a playoff contender didn’t dramatically improve Kuzma’s statistics. He posted a horrid box plus/minus of minus-4.7 points per 100 possessions in Milwaukee, versus minus-5.3 in Washington. That’s still the second-worst mark for any qualified player in the league this season.
Kuzma’s team-level metrics weren’t much better, as the Bucks were 12 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor. He might still be their No. 2 option behind Giannis Antetokounmpo, with Damian Lillard‘s status uncertain because of deep vein thrombosis in his right calf. But Kuzma is running out of time for a bounce back.
Detroit Pistons: Tobias Harris
76ers fans just about ran Harris out of Philadelphia after years of underwhelming playoff performances from a player making $36 million per season. But now, the 76ers are stuck playing the lottery while Harris has the best on/off differential for a different playoff team.
From the play-in tournament to the NBA Finals, ESPN has you covered throughout the playoffs.
• Postseason preview: Big questions for all 20 teams
• Pelton: 25 names to watch, including top stars
• Offseason guide: What’s next for eliminated teams
• What to know: News, schedule, scores, highlights
The Pistons have a plus-3.9 net rating when Harris plays but are only even when he sits; nobody else on the roster, not Most Improved Player favorite Cade Cunningham or Sixth Man contender Malik Beasley, has such a large gap. Harris’ surface stats are nothing special, but he does a little bit of everything, which makes him irreplaceable on a team without many two-way wings.
Harris is also one of the few Pistons with playoff experience, which could provide an added benefit as Detroit’s youngsters enter the gauntlet for the first time.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Aaron Wiggins
The biggest question facing the Thunder is whether they have enough secondary scoring behind MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Thus, Jalen Williams — who had a 34% usage rate when SGA was on the bench, per PBP Stats — is one of the most important players in the playoff field.
But Williams is an All-Star, so we’ll venture further down the Thunder’s depth chart to find their X factor. After Feb. 1, Wiggins made 41% of his 3-point attempts and averaged 16.2 points — good for third most on the team, behind SGA and Williams and ahead of Chet Holmgren.
Coach Mark Daigneault’s roster is so deep that he might never call on Wiggins in crunch time, instead opting for superior defenders Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace and Isaiah Hartenstein. But Wiggins could prove crucial for a handful of minutes every game when SGA rests or opponents force the ball out of his hands. Those moments could make or break the Thunder’s title hopes, and Wiggins is an underrated candidate to thrive in them.
Houston Rockets: Steven Adams
With a single-game season high of just 14 points, Adams isn’t going to make headlines for his scoring. But for about 20 minutes every game, thanks to coach Ime Udoka’s recent adoption of two-big lineups, the 31-year-old transforms NBA games into rugby scrums. With Adams and Alperen Sengun on the court together, the Rockets grabbed a jaw-dropping 50% of their misses, per Cleaning the Glass.
For reference, other than the Rockets, the top offensive rebounding team this season was the Portland Trail Blazers, who were at 32%.
In the playoffs, opposing defenses might expose the two-big Rockets lineups’ lack of shooting and relegate Adams back to the bench. But the Adams-Sengun duo had a net rating of plus-29.9 — the second best for any two-man lineup in the league with at least 150 minutes played, and the only non-Thunder duo in the top five. It gives the Rockets a unique wrinkle that might keep working in the postseason.
Los Angeles Lakers: Rui Hachimura
Austin Reaves is the natural answer as the Lakers’ overqualified third option behind Luka Doncic and LeBron James. But Hachimura also occupies an important role in a rotation without any true centers beyond Jaxson Hayes, who averaged 22 minutes per game after the All-Star break.
No. 10 Heat at No. 9 Bulls, 7:30 p.m.
No. 10 Mavericks at No. 9 Kings, 10 p.m.
Friday, April 18: Play-in
Western Conference 8th-place game, TBD
All times Eastern
That leaves more than half the game for the Lakers to use small-ball lineups. And lo and behold, Basketball Reference estimates that Hachimura spent 26% of his minutes at center this season, versus a previous career high of just 5%.
With a 41% 3-point stroke, Hachimura can provide spacing on offense, but it’s his size and rebounding that will be paramount in the postseason. The early returns are somewhat promising: When the Lakers used either Hachimura or James at center, per Cleaning the Glass, they outscored opponents by 6.7 points per 100 possessions, with a below-average defense but an offensive rating of 123.9, which ranked in the 96th percentile leaguewide.
Denver Nuggets: Russell Westbrook
Is there a more feast-or-famine player in the NBA? This season offered a microcosm of that dichotomy. Westbrook has vastly exceeded expectations since he was traded and cut last summer. Then, he signed a veteran minimum contract with Denver; he has filled in admirably for Nuggets regulars who missed time because of injury. But Westbrook also cost Denver some key games with his recklessness — most notably a double-overtime crusher against Minnesota on April 1.
In the playoffs, Westbrook’s performance might hinge on how much he plays with Nikola Jokic. When Westbrook shared the court with Jokic this season, he had a respectable 20% usage rate and 58% true shooting percentage, per PBP Stats. But when Westbrook played without Jokic, he regressed into the least accurate high-volume shooter in the league, with a 30% usage rate and 47% true shooting mark.
It will also be interesting to see how much interim coach David Adelman trusts Westbrook in a tense playoff atmosphere after the Nuggets’ shocking coaching change in the final days of the regular season. Westbrook averaged 22 minutes in three games after Adelman took over, versus 29 minutes after the All-Star break under former coach Michael Malone.
LA Clippers: Ivica Zubac
According to the estimated wins metric from Dunks & Threes, the four most valuable players this season were the players most likely to place in the top four on most MVP ballots: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum.
But the player who ranked fifth, just ahead of Anthony Edwards and Stephen Curry, is a much greater surprise: Zubac, the underrated 7-footer who broke out in his age-27 season.
On a team with Kawhi Leonard, James Harden and Norman Powell, Zubac doesn’t get a ton of attention. But he excelled on both ends and played almost every game, making him one of the NBA’s most valuable players this season, and he deserves ample All-NBA and All-Defense consideration.
The playoff bracket makes Zubac’s play even more integral to the Clippers’ chances to advance, as he’ll be tasked with guarding Jokic in the first round.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Julius Randle
Randle has a lot to prove individually as he attempts to correct a rotten playoff history. Out of 695 players in the 3-point era with at least 200 shot attempts in the playoffs, Randle ranks 692nd in field goal percentage (34%) and has more turnovers than assists.
But he also has a lot to prove collectively. Randle has the worst on/off differential (minus-3.4 points per 100 possessions) in Minnesota’s rotation, which isn’t what Minnesota hoped for when it swapped Towns for him last September. The Timberwolves are rounding into shape at the right time and look like a playoff sleeper that might emerge from the bottom of the West — but they need Randle to step up if they aim to replicate last season’s trip to the conference finals.
Golden State Warriors: Brandin Podziemski
Podziemski broke out of a sophomore slump in February. Before Jimmy Butler III joined the Warriors, Podziemski was averaging 9.4 points and making 33% of his 3s — an ugly decline after he made the All-Rookie First Team last season. After the trade, though, Podziemski leaped to 15 points per game and 42% from distance.
Podziemski’s shooting makes him a better fit next to Butler and Draymond Green than, say, Jonathan Kuminga or Gary Payton II. Podziemski and Moses Moody, who start next to the Warriors’ three stars, need to help draw defenses beyond the arc because even Curry can’t provide all the spacing.
That group has a plus-16.4 net rating in 211 minutes, and in a larger sample, the Curry-Butler-Podziemski trio has a plus-16.6 net rating, with excellent showings on offense and defense. If the Warriors are going to make a run from the bottom of the Western Conference bracket, they’ll need contributions from their youngsters and old guard — the “two timelines” approach coming to fruition at last.
