Reds vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Picks - April 12

Data Skrive

The Cincinnati Reds and TJ Friedl will take the field against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Oneil Cruz on Saturday at 6:40 p.m. ET, in the first game of a three-game series at Great American Ball Park. Bookmakers list the Reds as -120 favorites on the moneyline, while giving the underdog Pirates +102 moneyline odds to win. Pittsburgh is the run-line favorite (-1.5). The contest’s over/under is set at 8.5 runs.

Here is everything you need from a betting perspective on the Reds-Pirates game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Reds vs. Pirates Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, April 12, 2025 at 6:40 p.m. ET
Where: Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio
How to watch on TV: FDSOH and SportsNet PT

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Run Line Favorite Run Line Odds Underdog Run Line Odds Reds -120 +102 8.5 +100 -122 -1.5 -196 +162

Reds vs. Pirates Prediction

Score Prediction: Reds 6, Pirates 2
Total Prediction: Under 8.5 runs
Win Probabilities: Reds 71%, Pirates 29%

Reds vs. Pirates Betting Insights

This season, the Reds have been favored three times and won one of those games.
Cincinnati has played as favorites of -120 or more twice this season and split those games.
Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Reds have a 54.5% chance to win.
The Pirates have come away with three wins in the eight contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
This season, Pittsburgh has come away with a win one time in six chances when named as an underdog of at least +102 or longer on the moneyline.
The Pirates have an implied victory probability of 49.5% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.

Reds Recent Betting Performance

The Reds have been listed as the moneyline favorite by oddsmakers only one time in the last 10 games, and lost that matchup.
Over their last 10 outings — all had a set run total — the Reds and their opponents combined to go over the total four times.
The Reds’ record against the spread is 6-4-0 over their past 10 games.

Reds Recent Stats

Stat Avg/Total Record 4-6 Runs Per Game 3.8 HR 8 ERA 2.89 K/9 7.2

Reds Player Insights

Elly De La Cruz comes into Saturday’s game as the Reds top run producer, collecting 12 RBI while connecting on two long balls in 2025. His .250 average is also best on the squad.
Of all hitters in MLB, De La Cruz ranks 56th in homers and 10th in RBI.
Friedl has a double, a home run and three walks while batting .245.
Friedl is 103rd in home runs and 104th in RBI on the year.
Jose Trevino is hitting .273 with a double, a home run and two walks.
Santiago Espinal is hitting .233 with a double and two walks.

Pirates Recent Betting Performance

The Pirates have played as underdogs in eight of their past 10 games and won three of those contests.
In their last 10 games with a total, the Pirates and their opponents are 5-5-0 when it comes to hitting the over.
The Pirates have four wins against the spread in their last 10 chances.

Pirates Recent Stats

Stat Avg/Total Record 4-6 Runs Per Game 3.3 HR 6 ERA 4.65 K/9 8.6

Pirates Player Insights

Cruz has collected a team-best two home runs.
In all of the big leagues, Cruz ranks 56th in homers and 104th in RBI.
Ke’Bryan Hayes has a double, a triple, a home run and five walks while batting .239.
Hayes is currently 103rd in homers and 104th in RBI in the big leagues.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa leads the Pirates with a team-best batting average of .300.
Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates in home runs (two) and runs batted in (six).