Two states nearly a thousand miles apart will on Tuesday provide the best evidence yet of whether President Trump and his Republican allies maintain robust support or whether they face a growing backlash led by a re-energized Democratic Party.

In Wisconsin, a nearly $100 million race for control of the State Supreme Court has morphed from an important clash over the state’s direction into a referendum on Elon Musk’s supersized role in national politics.

In Florida, one of two special elections for deep-red House seats suddenly seems too close for comfort for Republicans. Democrats, while still expecting to lose, are watching the margins closely for signs that their party is ascendant.

[We’re tracking each party’s turnout for Tuesday’s special House elections in Florida.]

Here are five big questions heading into Tuesday’s elections.

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Elon Musk and groups tied to him have spent more than $25 million backing Mr. Schimel, the conservative candidate for the open court seat.Credit…Jim Vondruska for The New York Times

Mr. Musk’s support for Brad Schimel, the conservative candidate in Wisconsin, has been a full-service political operation.

Get live results and maps from the 2025 Wisconsin spring elections.

Get live results and maps from the 2025 Florida special election.

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