Whether it’s the No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks advancing in the 2025 men’s NCAA tournament or the No. 2 UConn Huskies dominating to the next round of the women’s NCAA tournament, both Sweet 16 fields are set and ready to tip off Thursday and Friday.
And while some teams have cruised through with ease, others have stumbled their way through — or just barely lived up to expectations. So with the help of the numbers, let’s examine which teams and players have outdone their usual performances the most so far — and which ones have come in colder than advertised.
To build our Heat Index rankings for both men’s and women’s brackets, we’re comparing each team’s actual point differential in its first two NCAA tournament games to the margin we’d predict based on Sports Reference’s Simple Rating System (SRS), which represents each team’s opponent-adjusted points per game (PPG) margin from the season as a whole. Hot teams are the ones with better average margins in Rounds 1-2 of the NCAA tournaments than expected; cold teams are the ones that advanced despite playing worse than we’d expect.
Then, for the standout players on those hot (or cold) teams, we calculated the difference between their average Game Score — a metric that condenses a player’s overall box score production into a single number — in the tourney versus during the regular season to see who’s stepping up, or shrinking, under the bright lights of March.
Take the No. 1 seed Duke men, for instance. The Blue Devils already had the nation’s highest SRS mark going into the tourney, so their comfortable wins against Mount St. Mary’s and Baylor weren’t all that surprising — but their +33.5 average point margin was still 8.5 points better than expected. That was fueled by breakout performances from Tyrese Proctor (20.8 tourney Game Score, up from 9.0 during the season) and Patrick Ngongba II (11.8 vs. 4.7), with Cooper Flagg undershooting his normal average from the season (15.6 vs. 17.0).
Or look at No. 3 seed Notre Dame on the women’s side, which has exceeded its expected scoring margin by more than 13 points per game, thanks in large part to a surging Liza Karlen (11.1 tournament Game Score, up from 4.8) and Sonia Citron (18.9 vs. 12.7). Or No. 3 seed Oklahoma, which breezed past Florida Gulf Coast and Iowa by 28.5 PPG, 13.3 more than expected.
But as well as Duke, Notre Dame and Oklahoma are playing — and as less-dominant-than-expected as their counterparts such as the No. 2 seed Alabama men and No. 1 seed UCLA women have been — they don’t quite top our Heat Index.
Here are the teams — and their players — who have exceeded or fallen short of expectations the most through the first two rounds of the men’s and women’s tournaments:
Texas’ Rori Harmon, Auburn’s Johni Broome, Arkansas’ Johnell Davis and UConn’s Azzi Fudd will lead their respective teams into the Sweet 16 this week. Illustration by ESPN
Tourney torching: These teams are just heating up
No. 10 seed Arkansas Razorbacks (men)
Tournament PPG differential: plus-8.0
Versus expected: plus-11.8
The only double-digit seed remaining in either men’s or women’s tournaments, coach John Calipari’s Razorbacks have been through a roller coaster of a year, overcoming injuries and underperformance for most of the regular season to just slip into the NCAA tourney field.
Arkansas then took out a couple of very tough opponents, including Hunter Dickinson and Kansas, and — in a battle against Coach Cal’s longtime frienemy Rick Pitino — the AP No. 5 ranked St. John’s Red Storm. Both games represented some of the most complete basketball the Razorbacks have played. Arkansas held both the Jayhawks and Johnnies to some of their worst offensive efficiency numbers of the season while also producing two of its five best offensive games.
Player on the rise: Jonas Aidoo, forward (14.5 Game Score, plus-7.7 vs. season average)
Missing leading scorer Adou Thiero (15.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG) since late February with a knee injury, the Hogs have needed someone to fill his void on the stat sheet. In the postseason so far, that someone has been Aidoo, the Tennessee transfer and senior forward who averaged 6.9 points and 4.9 rebounds during the season but has upped that output to 14.5 and 6.0, respectively, during the tourney.
A close second among Arkansas players who have stepped up is guard Johnell Davis, who is scoring 15.5 PPG while shooting 50% from the floor (39% from 3), and the team received 31 combined points against St. John’s from Billy Richmond III and Karter Knox, who collectively averaged fewer than 14 during the season. You don’t make the Sweet 16 as a No. 10 seed without contributors coming out of the woodwork, so we’ll see how much of this production the Razorbacks can continue to count on.
Next up: vs. No. 3 Texas Tech, Thursday, 10:09 p.m. ET (TBS/TruTV)
No. 3 seed LSU Tigers (women)
Tournament PPG differential: plus-42.5
Versus expected: plus-23.5
Coach Kim Mulkey’s squad hasn’t faced much adversity in the tournament so far, crushing San Diego State and then outscoring a Florida State team (one that ranks 22nd in the country in SRS) by 29 in the second half, with three different players — Mikaylah Williams, Aneesah Morrow and Sa’Myah Smith — each scoring 20-plus points, and combining for more by themselves (74) than FSU had as a team (71).
Things will surely be more difficult starting against NC State in the Sweet 16, but the Tigers have to be pleased heading into the tournament’s second weekend after one of their most impressive all-around performances of the season.
Player on the rise: Sa’Myah Smith, forward (17.4 Game Score, plus-10.1 vs. season average)
One of the other causes for optimism in Baton Rouge is the sheer volume of contributions the Tigers have received from the roster. Notice that leading scorer and team star Flau’Jae Johnson wasn’t even among the names in the 20-point club above, while the team’s biggest overperformer in the tournament so far has been Smith, who has 15 points and 10 rebounds per game so far after averaging 6.2 in both categories over the season as a whole.
Even Shayeann Day-Wilson has stepped up, averaging an 8.9 Game Score in the tourney after putting up 2.5 during the season. In any given contest, there’s no telling who will have a big game for LSU.
Next up: vs. No. 2 NC State, Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
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No. 6 seed Ole Miss Rebels (men)
Tournament PPG differential: plus-10.0
Versus expected: plus-11.6
It’s odd to think about SEC teams exceeding expectations with a deep tourney run, given the relentless regular-season hype around the conference. But the power ratings weren’t as high on the Rebels because they found themselves facing a tough North Carolina squad in Round 1, then a team that had been an analytics darling in Iowa State in Round 2.
Up against that, Mississippi won with a surprising amount of ease, running its margin up above 20 in the second half of both games en route to a pair of comfortable wins.
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Player on the rise: Sean Pedulla, guard (18.1 Game Score, plus-6.4 vs. season average)
Coach Chris Beard’s team leans on balance as much as any team in the country, with six different scorers averaging double figures during the regular season. So even though Pedulla, the senior transfer guard out of Virginia Tech, led the team in Game Score over the course of the season, his 11.6 mark also ranked 12th among the SEC’s 16 team leaders. But in the NCAA tourney, Pedulla has been one of the field’s most dynamic players, averaging 20.0 PPG on 42% shooting from 3, to go with 6.5 assists per game, 4.0 rebounds per game and 3.0 steals per game.
Ole Miss also had four other double-digit scorers in the convincing win against Iowa State, including 19 from Jaemyn Brakefield off the bench, so no one can sleep on any player in the Rebels’ lineup — but Pedulla surely has Spartans coach Tom Izzo’s attention right now.
Next up: vs. No. 2 Michigan State, Friday, 7:09 p.m. ET (CBS)
No. 2 seed UConn Huskies (women)
Tournament PPG differential: plus-51.5
Versus expected: plus-16.5
It’s tough to fully contextualize how dominant UConn has been so far, because South Dakota State pulled a 10-over-7 upset against Oklahoma State in Round 1, setting the Huskies up to play no opponent ranked better than 46th in SRS through two games. But against the opponents in front of them, UConn has shined, maintaining an adjusted offensive rating of at least 130 points per 100 possessions in both games, even after accounting for strength of schedule.
The Huskies also kept their foot on the gas throughout most of the second half against the Jackrabbits, expanding a 15-point halftime lead to 40 with just under eight minutes to play. Paige Bueckers‘ 34 points showed just how ready she will be against stronger competition — and Oklahoma (No. 10 in SRS) will certainly provide that in the next round.
Player on the rise: Azzi Fudd, guard (22.0 Game Score, plus-11.7 vs. season average)
As impressive as Bueckers has been, the highest Game Score for the Huskies through a pair of games belongs to freshman forward Sarah Strong (at 23.7). And the biggest improvement versus the regular season belongs to Fudd, who has gone through so many ups and downs in her career in Storrs but has been playing some of her best basketball in the NCAA tourney.
More of that damage was done in Round 1 against Arkansas State, when Fudd scored 27 on 10-of-13 shooting with seven assists and six steals, but she is averaging 22 PPG on 64% shooting with 3.5 APG and 4.0 SPG overall, ranking second only to Bueckers in scoring. And generally, she has been looking to create more, with one of her highest single-game Usage Rates of the season (26.7%) against South Dakota State.
Next up: vs. No. 3 Oklahoma, Saturday, 5:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
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Frosty forecast: These teams appear to be cooling down
No. 1 seed Auburn Tigers (men)
Tournament PPG differential: plus-16.0
Versus expected: minus-9.0
Don’t get us wrong: It’s not like Auburn has struggled in this NCAA tournament. When the Tigers played their best — such as when they buried a good Creighton team with a 34-22 run to close the game last round — they still looked like one of best teams (if not the best team) in the country. However, against both Alabama State and Creighton, the games were within a score around midgame before the Tigers eventually asserted themselves.
And the win against the Bluejays was a particular warning that Auburn might need to tighten things up going forward; not only did the Tigers trail at the half, but they also ended up getting outshot from the field and beyond the 3-point arc, prevailing only on the strength of fewer turnovers and more shot volume.
Player on the slide: Johni Broome, forward (7.3 Game Score, minus-10.0 vs. season average)
Broome is one of the best players in the country and has ranked among the front-runners for the Wooden Award all season long. However, he has been a little slow to ramp up his production in the NCAA tourney. While Broome is averaging more rebounds (11.5) than he did en route to leading the SEC during the regular season (10.7), the rest of his numbers are down — 11.0 PPG, 41% shooting, 1.0 blocks per game — including an uncharacteristic eight-point outing against Creighton, one of his lowest single-game figures all season.
Broome is capable of not just playing better than this but of outright domination at both ends of the court — and Auburn won’t achieve its potential without Broome getting back to that level ASAP.
Next up: vs. No. 5 Michigan, Friday, 9:39 p.m. ET (CBS)
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No. 1 seed Texas Longhorns (women)
Tournament PPG differential: plus-30.5
Versus expected: minus-5.1
Sometimes, statistical expectations can be unfair in the tournament’s early rounds, as favorites can win by however much they want in games that get completely out of hand. That might be plaguing Texas in this metric, as the Longhorns “only” crushed William & Mary and Illinois by an average of 30.5 PPG in a pair of games where they led by an average of 16.5 at the half.
Still, while teams such as LSU and UConn were winning by 40 or even 50 PPG against similar or even tougher competition, the Longhorns were clearly pacing themselves. (One of their highest Game Score averages came from junior guard Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda, who averaged 5.6 PPG during the regular season.) They’ll need to exert themselves far more against Tennessee in the Sweet 16.
Player on the slide: Rori Harmon, guard (8.3 Game Score, minus-0.9 vs. season average)
Harmon ranked third on the Longhorns in scoring and led the team in assists during the regular season, and she piled up 7.5 APG in the tournament’s two rounds. But she also averaged just 6.5 PPG on 36% shooting, making her Texas’ most underwhelming player in the NCAA tourney so far.
It isn’t necessarily cause for concern yet, but Harmon will need to be back on her game with the Lady Vols boasting one of the most dangerous guard groups — led by Jewel Spear, Talaysia Cooper and Samara Spencer — of any team in the country.
Next up: vs. No. 5 Tennessee, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN+/Disney+)
No. 1 seed Florida Gators (men)
Tournament PPG differential: plus-14.0
Versus expected: minus-6.1
After handling Norfolk State with ease in the tourney opener, the Gators ran into real trouble on Sunday against two-time defending national champion UConn. Florida trailed for almost all of the second half before a few well-timed shots by Walter Clayton Jr. and some cold UConn shooting helped Florida regain control.
Still, the Gators were already the No. 1 seed we had the most questions about going into the tournament, and they’re going to need to play sharper than they did in the turnover-marred (they had a minus-6 turnover differential) near-upset that almost ended their run before it could begin.
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Player on the slide: Alex Condon, forward (9.6 Game Score, minus-1.7 vs. season average)
Condon was Florida’s third-most productive player by Game Score during the regular season, trailing Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin, with solid averages of 11.1 points (on 50% shooting), 7.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists and a team-high 1.4 blocks per game. However, he was hardly a factor at all against UConn, producing one of his worst games of the season: 5 points on only 2 shots, with 7 rebounds and 4 assists but zero blocks.
Additionally, a handful of late missed free throws threatened to open the door for a UConn comeback before his teammates slammed it shut. If Condon can’t hold his own in a battle of the big men against Maryland’s Derik Queen, the Gators will have a problem on their hands.
Next up: vs. No. 4 Maryland, Thursday, 7:39 p.m. ET (TBS/TruTV)
No. 2 seed TCU Horned Frogs (women)
Tournament PPG differential: plus-18.5
Versus expected: minus-4.6
Going up against Fairleigh Dickinson and then Louisville, the Horned Frogs (with an average margin of +18.5) were the only top-2 seed to win by an average of less than 27 PPG in Rounds 1-2. While the FDU game saw TCU build a surprisingly modest eight-point halftime lead to 20 with around seven minutes to play, Louisville made the Frogs sweat some when it cut the lead to single digits with a few minutes left in regulation.
TCU still won on the strength of an overwhelming offensive performance, shooting 63% from the floor while going 11-for-18 from 3, but the Horned Frogs also gave up 41 points to Cardinals guard Jayda Curry — a performance they can scarcely afford to be replicated by Hannah Hidalgo and Notre Dame.
Player on the slide: Sedona Prince, forward (14.2 Game Score, minus-2.9 vs. season average)
Prince is a surprising name to land in this section, as her 17.5 PPG in the tournament matches her regular-season average. Nor has she shot poorly (61%), or failed to make a dent in the box score elsewhere (7.0 RPG). But she was down nearly 3 RPG from her usual average, with nearly twice as many turnovers, which explains the difference in Game Score.
The truth is, almost everyone on TCU saw their averages decline in the opening pair of tournament games, so Prince was in good company; only Madison Conner (11.3 Game Score, plus-0.3 vs. season average) has put up better numbers in the tourney than the season as a whole. That will need to change quickly for TCU to advance.
Next up: vs. No. 3 Notre Dame, Saturday, 1 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN+/Disney+)
