It will probably come as a surprise to many—as it did to me—to find out that Fritz is 4-0 against Berrettini; that he has dropped just one set to him in those matches, and that it happened way back in their first meeting, in 2019.

In general, Berrettini, 28, has had a roughly similar career to Fritz, 27. The American has been ranked as high as No. 4, and has made one major final, at the US Open in 2024. The Italian has been ranked as high as No. 6, and has also made one major final, at Wimbledon in 2021.

Each has a big serve and forehand, and neither is known for their elegance or finesse. Berrettini’s ability to hit drives and slices with his backhand may give him more variety, but Fritz owns an underrated drop shot, and his two-handed backhand is more solid than Berrettini’s, especially on returns. Maybe that last fact helps explain Fritz’s domination of their matches.

To different degrees, each of these guys came to Miami in comeback mode. The oft-injured Berrettini, currently ranked 30th, has been looking to find his old Top 10 form for a couple of years now. Fritz, meanwhile, is trying to bounce back from a surprise slump that started with his early loss at the Australian Open. They both have three wins in Miami, which means they’ve found something this week.

Either player can win, depending on who serves and returns better. Berrettini is probably due for a victory over Fritz, but I think a possible title here for the American will be a major motivating factor. And that 4-0 record has to be there for a reason. Winner: Fritz—Steve Tignor

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