A 79-72 win over the No. 12 seed Vanderbilt Commodores in Nashville on Wednesday at Bridgestone Arena in the SEC Tournament propelled the No. 13 seed Texas Longhorns into the second round with a Thursday matchup looming against the No. 5 seed Texas A&M Aggies.
Head coach Rodney Terry’s team received a boost to its NCAA Tournament odds when the Ohio State Buckeyes lost to the lower-seeded Iowa Hawkeyes in the Big Ten Tournament, elevating Texas to the first team out in ESPN’s Bracketology released on Wednesday evening.
Other teams to watch among the last four out include Boise State, the No. 5 seed in the Mountain West Tournament, which plays No. 4 seed San Diego State on Thursday afternoon, and Colorado State, the second-seeded Mountain West team, which plays a late game against No. 7 seed Nevada.
Among the last four teams in, Oklahoma was listed first by Lunardi before its 81-75 victory over No. 11 seed Georgia. On Thursday, Porter Moser’s team faces No. 6 seed Kentucky in a pretty strong position on the bubble.
As the No. 5 seed in the ACC Tournament, North Carolina recorded a 20-point win over No. 12 seed Notre Dame, but also has a 1-11 record against Quad 1 opponents. On Thursday, the Tar Heels play the Demon Deacons, one of the next four out in Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology. Eight of the 10 teams with the most similar resumes to UNC have made the tournament in the past, but the absolute lack of Quad 1 wins could be decisive on Selection Sunday without one or more wins in the ACC Tournament, which doesn’t have a great deal of juice as the nation’s fifth-best conference in power rating.
Xavier is one of the other last four teams in the field ahead of Thursday’s game against No. 5 seed Marquette. But the Musketeers only have two Quad 1 wins, which should increase the importance of the matchup in Madison Square Garden against the Golden Eagles.
The third last four team is Indiana, which plays the No. 8 seed Oregon Ducks on Thursday morning in the Big Ten Tournament. Unlike the Tar Heels and Musketeers, the Hoosiers have four Quad 1 wins.
That’s the context surrounding Texas and its NCAA Tournament hopes heading into its third matchup against Texas A&M this season.
When the Longhorns traveled to College Station to open SEC play in early January, a tie game at halftime turned into a blowout because Texas shot 25 percent from the floor in the second half, including 1-of-12 shooting from three, and Texas A&M bullied its way to a 20-8 edge in paints in the paint and guard Zhuric Phelps scored 15 points to lead the Aggies.
In the rematch in Austin, Texas A&M out-scored Texas 43-25 in the first half, giving Buzz Williams and his team a 38-point edge over 40 minutes of basketball. The Aggies pushed the lead to 22 points in the second half before Longhorns freshman guard Tre Johnson exploded for 24 of the 45 points scored by Texas out of halftime, going 4-of-6 shooting from three and 10-of-10 shooting at the free-throw line. During a key stretch of the second half, Johnson scored 12 out of 13 points for Texas.
Senior wing Tramon Mark made an important layup with 1:25 remaining and Johnson hit a three to cut the deficit to one with 45 seconds left, setting up Mark for his iconic game-winning layup with three seconds left.
An elite defensive team, Texas A&M has some real deficiencies on offense, including shooting 30.7 percent from three. That didn’t stop the Aggies from getting hot enough to tie their season high with 12 made threes in College Station, but generally, A&M’s performances look more like their 4-of-15 shooting effort from beyond the arc against LSU to close the regular season.
While the team’s effective field-goal percentage ranks 316th nationally, the Aggies make up for the poor shooting from crashing the offensive glass with physicality and relentless effort, ranking first nationally by securing 42.2 percent of their misses.
A&M also ranks 22nd in free-throw rate, an area where Texas matches up poorly because of its propensity to send opponents to the line with an opposing free-throw rate that ranks 298th nationally.
The win probability on Thursday favors the Aggies at 69 percent with FanDuel slotting A&M as 6.5-point favorites. Tip is at 2:54 p.m. Central on SEC Network.
