The Big East Tournament tipped off Wednesday at Madison Square Garden in New York City.

The NCAA’s longest running conference tournament at one location (1983) always brings fans in droves to The Mecca, eager to see high-level basketball in a conference rooted with rich history.

Xavier head coach Sean Miller leads the No. 4 seed Musketeers to Manhattan to face No. 5 Marquette in the quarterfinals Thursday.

More: What we learned from Xavier Musketeers win over Providence Friars

More: Which Xavier Musketeers were named All-Big East selections?

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Where is Xavier in latest bracketology?

Xavier is on the cusp of securing an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Xavier is one of the “Last Four In” in latest updates from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, Fox Sports’ Mike DeCourcy and CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm, along with several other bracketologists.

TeamRankings.com bumped Xavier’s NCAA Tournament chances to 80.5% overall and 73.5% to be an at-large. That’s the highest Xavier’s odds have been to go dancing. TeamRankings also lists Xavier as most likely to get a No. 10 seed (21.8%), meaning the Musketeers avoid the First Four in Dayton.

The biggest blemish on Xavier’s record is its Quad 1 record (1-8). That could change in a big way Thursday. Xavier’s matchup with Marquette (No. 25 NET) is a Quad 1 chance. No. 3 UConn (No. 32 NET) will play the winner of No. 6 Villanova/No. 11 Seton Hall. A UConn victory could put the Huskies in the top 30 of the NET, meaning Xavier’s win over Dan Hurley’s club in January would also become a Quad 1.

Xavier appears to be in the driver’s seat for an at-large bid. Even with a loss to Marquette, Xavier could still be in the 68-team field. A win over Marquette would solidify an at-large bid.

More: What does Xavier need to do in Big East Tournament to secure March Madness at-large bid?

What are Xavier’s odds to win the Big East Tournament?

The betting markets are bullish on the Musketeers’ chances to dance. As of Monday morning, Xavier was -230 ($10 bet wins $4.35) to make the NCAA Tournament, per FanDuel Sportsbook. That’s an implied probability of 69.70%.

The only guaranteed way for Xavier to lock up an NCAA Tournament spot is by running the table this week.

Riding a seven-game winning streak, Xavier is a popular sleeper pick to run the table at Madison Square Garden. Xavier is 10-to-1 (+1000) to win the Big East Tournament, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Miller and multiple Musketeers have said that Xavier is playing its best basketball right now. This week is a chance to prove it. Xavier has wins over UConn, Marquette and Creighton under its belt. The Musketeers have to feel they can hang with St. John’s after letting a 16-point, second-half slip away in an overtime loss to the Johnnies in January.

Has Xavier ever won the Big East Tournament?

Since joining the conference, Xavier has won at least one game in the Big East Tournament in eight of 11 seasons (11-11 overall). Xavier is still searching for the program’s first title after falling in the championship game in 2015 and 2023.

Xavier’s last conference tournament championship was in 2006, when Miller led the Musketeers to the Atlantic-10 title at Riverfront Coliseum (now Heritage Bank Center).

A look at the Big East Tournament field

There are seemingly four NCAA Tournament locks from the Big East. Xavier is trying to make it a five-bid league. Here’s a glance at the clubs in order by seed.

No. 1 St. John’s (27-4, 18-2 Big East): The Red Storm have taken over New York City. After winning their first Big East title since 1985, Rick Pitino and his team were Jimmy Fallon’s guest on the “Tonight Show.” St. John’s will have a large contingent of supporters at Madison Square Garden this week.

No. 2 Creighton (22-9, 15-5 Big East): Creighton has gone to the Sweet 16 in three of the last four seasons but have never won the Big East Tournament. Greg McDermott’s Bluejays are 0-4 in the championship game (2014, 2017, 2021, 2022).

No. 3 UConn (22-9, 14-6 Big East): This isn’t the same UConn juggernaut that steamrolled to a national championship last season. The Huskies went 6-6 between four-game winning streaks to start and end the conference schedule. Since Nov. 30, UConn is 13-3 when freshman phenom Liam McNeeley plays.

No. 4 Xavier (21-10, 13-7 Big East): Xavier is on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. One Big East Tournament win could seal the deal.

No. 5 Marquette (22-9, 13-7 Big East): Strong non-conference wins helped offset Marquette’s conference struggles. The Golden Eagles finished 6-7 in league play and went 2-6 against the top 4 teams in the Big East.

No. 6 Villanova (18-13, 11-9 Big East): Head coach Kyle Neptune has the hottest seat in the Big East. Barring an improbable run to the Big East Tournament title, Villanova will miss the NCAA Tournament for the third consecutive season. Villanova beat Seton Hall 67-55 Wednesday night.

No. 7 Georgetown (17-14, 8-12 Big East): Ed Cooley’s club went just 5-12 to finish the regular season following a 3-0 start to Big East play. Georgetown has not won a Big East Tournament game since a Cinderella run to the title in 2021. Georgetown lost 71-67 to DePaul Wednesday night.

No. 8 Providence (12-19, 6-14 Big East): Injuries have led to Providence going under .500 for the first time since 2012. The Friars lost nine of 10 to end the regular season, then lost to Butler 75-69 in the first round Wednesday.

No. 9 Butler (13-18, 6-14 Big East): Butler did finish 6-8 after an 0-6 start in league play. Head coach Thad Matta will return next season. Butler has not made the NCAA Tournament since 2018. The Bulldogs opened the tourney with a 75-69 victory over Providence.

No. 10 DePaul (13-18, 4-16 Big East): There was clear improvement for DePaul in the first year under Chris Holtmann. The Blue Demons were 0-20 in league play last season. DePaul upset Georgetown 71-67 Wednesday night.

No. 11 Seton Hall (7-24, 2-18 Big East): Seton Hall went from NCAA Tournament snub last year to the Big East’s basement. The Pirates fell to Villanova 67-55 Wednesday night.

Big East Tournament projection

It’s very difficult to pick against St. John’s at Madison Square Garden. St. John’s is 18-0 at home this season.

Pitino’s defensive-minded club will find a way to run the table for a second confetti celebration at The Mecca this month.

Championship: St. John’s beats UConn

Semifinals: St. John’s beats Xavier; UConn beats Creighton