A developing storm system over the Ohio Valley will push eastward Saturday night into Sunday morning. The storm will spread a substantial snow event across the Hudson Valley… which for some locations, has the potential to be the biggest storm of the season so far.
Timing:
- 7pm to 10pm Saturday: Snow develops from SW to NE
- 5am to 9am Sunday: Light snow tapers off from west to east
Impact:
- Temperatures in the 20s… snow accumulates on all surfaces
- 9pm to 2am : Period of heaviest snow… over 1? per hour possible
- 1am to 6am : Possible mix with sleet near and south of I-84
- Treacherous travel expected Saturday night and Sunday morning
Snow Accumulations:
- Mid and Upper HV & Catskills: 5 to 9 inches (localized totals over 10″ possible)
- Lower Hudson Valley: 4 to 7 inches (mixing with sleet & freezing rain likely)
Discussion:
As with every storm… this one will have some tricks up its sleeve. The good news is that in general… the basic forecast gives us high confidence. The system will push into the northeast… and snow will develop across the Hudson Valley between 7pm and 10pm… with most locations starting between 8pm and 9pm.
Futurecast Radar: 5pm Saturday – 12pm Sunday
The snow will fall heavily shortly after beginning, so conditions will deteriorate rapidly. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are expected between the start of the storm and roughly 1 or 2am. Low visibility combined with snow covered roadways and temperatures in the 20s… will make for treacherous travel after 9pm tonight. If you can avoid traveling Saturday night, that’s likely the best idea.
The snow will continue into the overnight hours, becoming lighter after 2am or so. Areas near and south of I-84 could experience a couple hours of sleet mixing with the snow… but everyone should switch back over to snow before ending shortly after sunrise on Sunday.
The Wildcards…
The challenge with the storm are regarding snowfall totals. Our ranges are shown above… but there are some concerns about the 4″ to 7″ range primarily. You can see on the futurecast above, the peach color (sleet) pushes all the way up to MSV (Monticello), MGJ (Montgomery) and POU (Poughkeepsie). That period of sleet could reduce accumulations a bit, which is why we have the lower totals in those areas.
But there are 2 wildcards we’re going to monitor…
First… some guidance (the HRRR) suggests that a mix of sleet and freezing rain make it all the way into Greene and Columbia counties for a short time between 2am and 6am. The reason for this is dry air affecting the ability for snow to develop, resulting in a light wintry mix. If that is correct… totals could be an inch or two less in the 5 to 9 range. We think that’s unlikely… but something we’re watching.
Second… the 4 to 7 inch range is where we are likely to mix with sleet for a period of time. However, some guidance suggests that we see an exceptionally heavy band of snow develop right along the boundary layer… in the lower Hudson Valley back into NJ and PA. Snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are being suggested over that area. If we see that heavier banding of snow develop… the 4 to 7 range could find themselves on the high side of the range… possibly even some localized 8 or 9 inch totals.
It really depends on how the banding of heaviest snow develops. But something to watch closely.
However the details above are more nit picking than anything else… in general, the majority of the Hudson Valley is likely to see around a half foot of snow, give or take an inch or two. So the impact is pretty much the same for everyone. We’ll be tracking this all the way through the day, and through the storm tonight. Have a great Saturday!
