The 2025 NFL Draft is upon us, and it’s exciting for more reasons than one. Not only is this the most important event of the NFL offseason, but it has also become a legitimate gambling event for football fans as well. The old adage is “Vegas knows all,” but that’s not entirely true when it comes to the NFL Draft — which is a reason why you can find legitimate value with some of the bets you can place.
Draft odds shift when the rumor mill churns. When there was smoke around the Jacksonville Jaguars being a potential “wild card” at No. 5 overall, odds for the players they could select changed. Furthermore, it’s important to shop around when it comes to betting the draft. Not all sportsbooks offer the same kind of bets, and the odds for props that are available at other books are different as well.
Two weeks ago, I posted a piece on Over/Under draft positions for 14 players. Such as “Cam Ward Over/Under 1.5,” meaning will he be selected at No. 1 overall, or after the first pick. Let’s take a look at how those odds have changed since then for five players I discussed:
PlayerOriginal lineOriginal betCurrent oddsRB Omarion Hampton
Over/Under 19.5
Under 19.5 (-115)Under 19.5 (+270)
QB Shedeur Sanders
Over/Under 8.5
Under 8.5 (+160)Under 14.5 (+320)
WR Matthew Golden
Over/Under 17.5
Under 17.5 (+135)Under 17.5 (-165)
EDGE Mike Green
Over/Under 17.5
Under 17.5 (-140)Under 17.5 (+200)
DL Mason Graham
Over/Under 5.5
Over 5.5 (+135)Over 5.5 (-350)
As you can see, all of the odds have shifted — some in a positive way and some in a negative way. That’s why it’s not always the best strategy to lock in these bets as soon as you can, but now that we have entered draft week, it’s definitely time to start placing wagers.
Below, we will break down five draft bets to consider from a couple different sportsbooks.
QBs selected in first round Over 2.5 (-130, BetMGM)
Some imagine Sanders could fall out of the first round entirely, but clearly I don’t think that will be the case. Which quarterback will join Ward and Sanders in hearing their names called on opening night? It’s between Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe.
The reason I like this bet is because three quarterback-needy teams are currently slated to select in the first five picks in Round 2: The Cleveland Browns, New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders. If they are interested in someone like Dart — or Milroe for that matter — sitting on your hands and hoping they fall to you is not the correct strategy. I believe one of these teams will trade back into the first round for a quarterback.
Steelers first drafted position QB (+160, BetMGM)
Some believe Aaron Rodgers is headed to Pittsburgh, but how long is Mike Tomlin going to wait around? The NFL draft begins TODAY, and the Steelers will be looking at quarterbacks. Pittsburgh has been linked to Sanders at No. 21 overall, and it’s even possible the Steelers could trade down and then select Dart.
Second CB selected: Jahdae Barron (-110, DraftKings)
This one is pretty simple. After Travis Hunter, either Jahdae Barron or Will Johnson will be drafted. I love Johnson, but Albert Breer of SI.com reported that the former Michigan star has a knee issue that’s been flagged.
“It shouldn’t affect him in the short term, but teams are concerned it could impact his longevity,” Breer wrote.
Barron is a talented player that won the Jim Thorpe Award last season, and registered the second-bet PFF coverage grade by an FBS cornerback in 2024 (91.3). I have him jumping Johnson.
James Pearce Under 31.5 (-130, DraftKings)
Pearce did not emerge from the draft process unscathed. While he destroyed the combine thanks to his high-level athleticism, some are concerned about Pearce’s “coachability.” I can’t speak to the coachability aspect, but what I can tell you is that Pearce doesn’t appear to be the “rah-rah guy” that is always good for a quote or delivering the pregame speeches every week. Do you have to be that guy to be a good football player?
The bottom line is that Pearce registered the most tackles for loss (28) and pressures (107) in the SEC over the past two seasons. He also registered the highest pressure rate (22.5%) in the FBS over the past two seasons. Abdul Carter ranked second at 21%. So you’re telling me that guy isn’t a first-round pick? CBS Sports NFL Draft expert Chris Trapasso even believes Pearce is the best player in this class over Travis Hunter!
Longshot: Tetairoa McMillan No. 5 overall pick (+600, DraftKings)
Let’s get a long-shot wager in here. NFL Media keeps telling us the Jaguars are going to be “bold, not timid,” even though they aren’t explaining what they mean by that. I guess Jacksonville will attempt to trade up, but what if the Jags stay at No. 5 and want to go offense? Wide receiver Tet McMillan is an option.
The Arizona product led the FBS in receiving yards (3,423) over the past three seasons, and registered 35 receptions of 20+ air yards during his career — which ranked most in the FBS from 2022-24. He’s not Tyreek Hill in regards to straight-line speed, but he’s a massive target at 6-foot-5. If we are discounting Hunter, McMillan is your WR1 in this class. Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr., Tet McMillan, dynamic trio?
